What happened: the company released its third quarter 2023 report:

① 2023 achieved revenue of 5.502 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 51.04 percent over the same period last year, and net profit of 445 million yuan, up 54.39 percent over the same period last year, deducting 4.211 billion yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 56.84 percent over the same period last year.

② 2023Q3 realized revenue of 2.105 billion yuan, an increase of 47.25% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 123 million yuan, an increase of 0.96% over the same period last year, deducting 121 million yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 5.09% over the same period last year.

③ asset impairment: according to the company announcement, the total provision for impairment from January to September in 2023 is 71.4578 million yuan, including 22.353 million yuan for credit impairment and 49.1048 million yuan for asset impairment.

Gemini is still shining, and new energy is growing at a high speed:

Revenue for the first three quarters of 2023:

Sub-industry: we estimate that the new energy business is about 2.7 billion yuan, of which energy storage revenue is about 2.01 billion yuan, photovoltaic revenue is about 690 million yuan, data center revenue is about 1.97 billion yuan, and smart energy revenue is about 830 million yuan.

Profit forecast and investment advice: we expect the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 to reach 93.8 pictur 122.1 / 16.72 billion yuan. Taking into account the impact of impairment and changes in investment income, it is estimated that the net profit of return to the mother will reach 6.68 pound 8.97 / 1.218 billion yuan (the previous value is 7.34 shock 9.14 / 1.248 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 169%, 34% and 36%. Corresponding to 2023-2025, PE is currently 19.2, 14.3, 10.5 (calculated at the closing price on October 25, 2023). In view of the company's leading advantage in data center and the overall layout of energy storage business inside and outside Shanghai, large storage and household storage, the future energy storage business is expected to be accompanied by the rapid growth of domestic and overseas energy storage capacity, giving the company 25 times PE in 2024, corresponding to the target price of 48.57 yuan per share. Maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk hints: domestic industrial policy promotes less than expected risk; overseas energy storage demand falls short of expected risk; competition pattern worsens risk; raw material supply is insufficient; negative impact risk of performance below expectations on valuation.