Core ideas:
23Q3's parent net profit increased by 21% month-on-month, in line with expectations. According to the company's financial report, 23Q3 achieved operating income of 54.3 billion yuan, year-on-year-21%, month-on-month-20%, net profit of 1.9 billion yuan, 105%, 21%, non-net profit of 2 billion yuan, 234%, 61%, basic earnings per share 0.11 yuan per share, 235%, 21%, operating net cash flow 10.1 billion yuan, 69%, 59%, asset-liability ratio 54.34%, year-on-year-5.45PCT Ring ratio-1.27PCT.
Original aluminum plate: 23Q3 aluminum prices rose slightly month-on-month, industry costs decreased, southwest resumption of production made the company's output greatly increased, it is estimated that the profit of electrolytic aluminum plate increased month-on-month. According to the company's financial report, Wind,23Q3 's original aluminum production fell 1% from the same period last year, increasing 22% from the previous month to 1.87 million tons; the average price of SHEF aluminum rose 2% from the previous month to 18642 yuan / ton; and the average complete cost of electrolytic aluminum in China, as estimated by Mysteel, fell 2% from the previous month.
Alumina plate: the average price of 23Q3 alumina dropped slightly compared with the previous month, while the output of metallurgy and fine alumina decreased and increased respectively, the total output remained stable and the structure was optimized. According to the company's financial report, Wind,23Q3 's metallurgy and fine alumina output reached 423 and 950000 tons respectively,-4% and 8% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the national average price of alumina was 3068 yuan / ton compared with-21% and 23% respectively, down 3% and 0.5% from the same period last year.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 23-25 years is 0.390.41 per share respectively. Based on the comparable company valuation and the company's leading position, Southwest Water Aluminium resumes production and contributes to the company's 23-year 20-fold PE,A shares with a reasonable value of RMB7.77 per share. According to the current AH share premium ratio, the reasonable value of H shares is HK $5.27 per share, maintaining the "buy" rating of AH shares.
Risk hint. The macro-economy fluctuates sharply, the price of electrolytic aluminum falls, the price of alumina falls, the price of electricity rises, and the output of alumina and electrolytic aluminum falls short of expectations.