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CICC: An Analysis of the Impact of the Stamp Duty Reduction in Hong Kong

中金點睛 · Oct 26, 2023 11:01

来源：中金点睛

港府宣布下调印花税：提振港股市场流动性

10月25日宣布香港印花税率将从0.13%下调至0.1%。香港特区行政长官李家超在2023年《施政报告》中提出，股票交易印花税税率将由当前的0.13%下调至0.1%，从而降低投资者的交易成本、提振市场情绪，以提升香港股票市场竞争力[1]。特区政府计划于11月1日提交立法会进行首读，11月底完成立法程序。

两年前曾因财政压力上调印花税，本次下调以提振港股市场流动性。2021年3月香港政府首次上调股票印花税率，由0.1%提高至0.13%。这一调整，叠加当时利率上行和通胀担忧，港股市场明显承压（《香港上调股票印花税影响几何？》）。年初以来，港股流动性趋势下行，目前日成交额已接近历史较低水平。此前在《施政报告》问询期间及8月香港特区政府成立流动性专责小组时，调降印花税也是广泛讨论的选项之一。

下调印花税影响几何？短期改善情绪，中长期提升流动性；后续不排除有更多提振流动性措施

历史上曾经历过三次下调，本次调降或减少约123亿港元的财政收入。自1993年以来，港股共经历过三次印花税下调：1998年4月1日自0.15%下调至0.125%；2000年4月7日自0.125%下调至0.1125%；2001年9月1日自0.1125%下调至0.1%。从财政收入角度，根据香港特区政府此前估算，若将印花税调降至0.1%将使政府减少约123亿港元的财政收入，相当于2022年财政收入的2%，影响相对有限。2022财年股票交易印花税收入为531亿港元，印花税总计收入约700亿港元，占6,221亿港元总财政收入的11%。

对于市场而言，短期上看，印花税下调或更多从情绪上提振市场。根据历史经验，下调印花税后，指数层面有望迎来阶段性提振，但规律并不一致，也说明持续的反弹也还需要更多基本面因素配合；中长期来看，调降印花税有利于降低交易摩擦成本，增强市场流动性，提升市场交易额中枢。

► 短期释放积极信号，或改善市场情绪。从市场交易额的角度测算，今年以来日均成交额自高点1,600亿港元回落至当前600亿港元，平均大约在1000亿港元左右。若印花税率降低0.03%，粗略估计对应每天减少约3,300万港元新增成本。尽管此次调降幅度不大，象征意义大于实际，彰显了港府提振市场流动性的意愿。以往的历史经验也表明，印花税方面的调整举措虽然从总体金额上看似影响有限，但市场情绪持续低迷的环境下，或许可能成为改善情绪的一个契机，但更为持续的反弹还需要更多基本面因素配合。

► 中长期降低交易成本，提升市场流动性。从整体交易成本来看，当前港股0.2757%的交易费用占比明显高于其他市场，其中印花税占比居高。目前绝大多数发达经济体股票市场并不征收印花税（如美国、德国、日本、澳大利亚等），A股市场自2023年8月27日起亦将印花税征收比例从0.1%下调至0.05%，港交所当前0.13%双边征收的印花税率显著高于其余主要市场。2020年做市商印花税豁免机制促使ETF交易活跃度明显跃升。在2020年8月1日推出印花税宽免措施后的12个月，受影响的香港股票ETF日均成交量提升了近40%，而其他ETF日均成交量则下降了37.8%。

今年8月成立流动性小组，关注后续提升流动性举措。往前看，下调印花税后，港股流动性专责小组不排除进一步推出更多措施，可能包括：短期降低交易成本（调降印花税、降低交易佣金、降低或取消港股通红利税）；中期降低投资门槛，拓宽投资范围（适当放宽港股通准入门槛、进一步扩大港股通投资范围；持续优化上市制度）；长期激活产品创新（优化香港创业板机制、设立面向专业投资者的专业板等）。

2023年施政报告：把握机遇和优势，发展新的增长点；关注流动性小组潜在措施

除了下调印花税外，此次施政报告进一步提出把握机遇和优势，发展新的增长点。2022年施政报告的要点是巩固金融中心地位、提升核心竞争力、直面民生问题、强化与内地融合（《解读2022年香港特区政府施政报告》）。如今一年期已过，根据2022年施政报告指定项目指标的进度，多数项目包括增加土地供应、增加公营房屋供应等已确定符合进度或完成执行。在此前基础和框架上，2023年施政报告强调在处理短期内外挑战的同时，进一步把握和发挥好机遇和优势，发展新的经济增长点。

此次施政报告承前启后，继续关注经济民生。一方面，报告提出继续“抢企业”、“抢人才”、“促创科”，增强香港发展动能。另一方面，特区政府也计划挖掘新的增长点，推动创新科技、文化创意、医药研发、中医药、新能源交通等新兴策略产业发展。从具体措施来看，除却下调印花税措施，促进股票市场流动性、扩大离岸人民币服务、设立政府主导基金等，我们预计也将有助于吸引更多南向流入与海外资金沉淀，帮助发挥区位优势与禀赋。

施政报告提出将继续充分发挥香港“背靠祖国、联通世界”的优势，但也需进一步补足短板。香港的最大优势在于一方面背靠内地“大市场”所赋予的全方面要素资源禀赋，同时“一国两制”赋予的连通全球桥梁的便利与弹性。

图表1：港股市场印花税下调指数短期阶段性反弹

资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部

图表2：港股市场印花税下调中长期成交额中枢上升

资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部

图表3：香港政府历年印花税收入及占比

资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部

图表4：香港市场印花税显著高于其他市场

资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部

图表5：受影响的ETF日均成交量宽免后提升近40%

资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部

图表6：受影响的ETF日均成交量宽免前后提升

资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部

图表7：2000年和2001年两次下调印花税板块表现

资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部

图表8：2023年香港行政特区《施政报告》重点内容梳理

编辑/ruby

Source: Zhongjin Dim Sum

Hong Kong Government Announces Stamp Duty Reduction: Boosting Hong Kong Stock Market Liquidity

It was announced on October 25 that Hong Kong's stamp duty rate will be reduced from 0.13% to 0.1%.The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Li Jiachao, proposed in the 2023 “Policy Address” that the stamp duty rate for stock transactions will be lowered from the current 0.13% to 0.1%, thereby reducing investors' transaction costs and boosting market sentiment, so as to enhance the competitiveness of the Hong Kong stock market [1]. The HKSAR Government plans to submit it to the Legislative Council for first reading on November 1 and complete the legislative process by the end of November.

Stamp duty was raised two years ago due to fiscal pressure, and now the reduction is aimed at boosting liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market.In March 2021, the Hong Kong government raised the stock stamp duty rate for the first time from 0.1% to 0.13%. This adjustment, compounded by rising interest rates and concerns about inflation at the time, clearly put pressure on the Hong Kong stock market (“What is the impact of the increase in stamp duty on stocks in Hong Kong?”). Since the beginning of the year, the liquidity trend of Hong Kong stocks has been declining. Currently, the daily turnover is close to a historically low level. Previously, during the “Policy Address” consultation period and when the HKSAR Government set up the Liquidity Task Force in August, lowering the stamp duty was also one of the widely discussed options.

What is the impact of lowering stamp duty? Improve sentiment in the short term and increase liquidity in the medium to long term; more measures to boost liquidity are not ruled out in the future

There have been three cuts in history, and this reduction or reduction in fiscal revenue by about HK$12.3 billion.Since 1993, Hong Kong stocks have experienced three stamp duty cuts: from 0.15% to 0.125% on April 1, 1998; 0.125% from 0.125% to 0.1125% on April 7, 2000; and 0.1% from 0.1125% on 2001/9/1.From the perspective of fiscal revenue,According to previous estimates by the HKSAR Government, reducing stamp duty to 0.1% would reduce government revenue by about HK$12.3 billion, equivalent to 2% of fiscal revenue in 2022. The impact is relatively limited. Stock transaction stamp duty revenue for FY2022 was HK$53.1 billion, and total stamp duty revenue was approximately HK$70 billion, accounting for 11% of total revenue of HK$622.1 billion.

As far as the market is concerned, in the short term, stamp duty cuts may be more of an emotional boost to the market.According to historical experience, after the stamp duty is lowered, the index level is expected to experience a phased boost, but the rules are not consistent, which also shows that the continued rebound also requires more fundamental factors to cooperate;In the medium to long term,Reducing stamp duty is conducive to reducing transaction friction costs, enhancing market liquidity, and increasing the center of market transaction volume.

► Send positive signals in the short term, or improve market sentiment.From the perspective of market turnover, the average daily turnover since this year has dropped from a high of HK$160 billion to the current HK$60 billion, with an average of around HK$100 billion. If the stamp duty rate were to be reduced by 0.03%, a rough estimate would correspond to a daily reduction of approximately HK$33 million in additional costs. Although this reduction is not significant, the symbolic significance is greater than reality, demonstrating the Hong Kong government's intention to boost market liquidity. Past historical experience also shows that although the impact of the stamp duty adjustment measures seems to be limited in terms of the overall amount, in an environment where market sentiment continues to be sluggish, it may be an opportunity to improve sentiment, but a more continuous rebound requires more fundamental factors to cooperate.

► Reduce transaction costs and improve market liquidity in the medium to long term.Judging from the overall transaction costs, the current share of 0.2757% of transaction fees for Hong Kong stocks is significantly higher than that of other markets, where stamp duty accounts for a high share. Currently, the vast majority of developed economies' stock markets do not levy stamp duty (such as the US, Germany, Japan, Australia, etc.). The A-share market has also lowered the stamp duty rate from 0.1% to 0.05% since August 27, 2023. The current 0.13% bilateral stamp duty rate of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is significantly higher than that of other major markets. The 2020 stamp duty exemption mechanism for market makers contributed to a marked increase in ETF trading activity. Twelve months after the stamp duty relief measures were introduced on August 1, 2020, the average daily turnover of affected Hong Kong stock ETFs increased by nearly 40%, while the average daily turnover of other ETFs fell by 37.8%.

A liquidity group was set up in August this year to focus on subsequent initiatives to improve liquidity.Looking ahead, after the stamp duty is lowered, the Hong Kong Stock Liquidity Task Force does not rule out introducing further measures, which may include: short-term reduction of transaction costs (reduction of stamp duty, reduction of transaction commissions, reduction or elimination of Hong Kong Stock Connect dividend tax); lowering the investment threshold in the medium term and broadening the scope of investment (appropriately easing the entry threshold for Hong Kong Stock Connect, further expanding the scope of investment in Hong Kong Stock Connect; continuously optimizing the listing system); and long-term activation of product innovation (optimizing the Hong Kong Venture Market mechanism, setting up a professional board for professional investors, etc.).

Policy Address 2023: Seize opportunities and advantages, develop new growth points; focus on potential measures of the Liquidity Group

In addition to lowering stamp duty, this Policy Address further proposes to seize opportunities and advantages and develop new growth points.The main points of the 2022 Policy Address are to consolidate its status as a financial center, enhance core competitiveness, face up to people's livelihood issues, and strengthen integration with the mainland (“Interpreting the 2022 HKSAR Government Policy Address”). Now that the one-year period has passed, according to the progress of the project indicators specified in the 2022 Policy Address, most projects, including increasing land supply and increasing the supply of public housing, have been determined to meet the schedule or have been implemented. On the basis and framework of the previous one,The 2023 Policy Address emphasizes that while dealing with short-term internal and external challenges, further seizing and utilizing opportunities and advantages, and developing new economic growth points.

The current Policy Address continues to focus on the economy and people's livelihood after building on the past.On the one hand, the report suggests continuing to “grab enterprises,” “grab talents,” and “promote innovation and technology” to enhance Hong Kong's development momentum. On the other hand, the SAR government also plans to explore new growth points and promote the development of emerging strategic industries such as innovative technology, cultural creativity, pharmaceutical research and development, traditional Chinese medicine, and new energy transportation. Judging from specific measures, in addition to lowering stamp duty measures, promoting liquidity in the stock market, expanding offshore RMB services, and setting up government-led funds, etc., we expect that it will also help attract more southbound inflows and overseas capital accumulation, and help make full use of location advantages and endowments.

The Policy Address suggests that Hong Kong will continue to give full play to Hong Kong's advantages of “being backed by the motherland and connecting the world,” but it is also necessary to make up for its shortcomings.Hong Kong's greatest advantage lies in the fact that, on the one hand, it is backed by the mainland's “big market” in all aspects of factor resources, and at the same time, the convenience and flexibility of the “one country, two systems” as a bridge connecting the world.

Chart 1: Short-term phased rebound in the Hong Kong stock market stamp duty reduction index