Events:
The company released the third-quarter report of 2023, 2023Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 1.739 billion yuan, + 29.08% year-on-year; return to the mother net profit of 236 million yuan, + 24.41% year-on-year. In terms of Q3 alone, 23Q3 achieved revenue of 631 million yuan, + 25.67% year-on-year, + 8.84% month-on-month, and net profit of 84 million yuan, + 14.60% and + 4.18%, respectively. On the whole, the company's performance is excellent, in line with our expectations.
Comments:
The production capacity of the new project was released rapidly, and the revenue in the third quarter reached an all-time high. At present, the company's annual production capacity is about 25-2.8 billion yuan. Thanks to relatively sufficient orders on hand, the company's IPO project capacity has been released smoothly. At present, the capacity utilization rate has been at a high level, with an average monthly output value of more than 210 million yuan in the third quarter. At the same time, the company's fourth phase of high-end intelligent CNC equipment and core functional components project is progressing smoothly, and construction will begin after signing a formal land use agreement with Suzhou Science and Technology City Management Committee. The project is expected to be completed by the end of 2024 and put into production in 2025, when the company's production capacity will be further enhanced, providing a solid guarantee for future performance growth.
The gross profit margin improved significantly compared with the previous month, and the net profit margin fluctuated under the influence of impairment provision. 23Q3's gross profit margin was 27.20%, an increase in 0.53pct compared with the same period last year, and an increase in 1.20pct on a month-on-month basis, mainly related to the increase in the share of overseas income. Net interest rate 13.27%, year-on-year decline-1.28pct, month-on-month decline-0.59pct, mainly related to quarterly asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses of the provision / reversal fluctuations, is a normal situation. From the perspective of deducting non-net interest rate, 23Q3 deducts 11.87% non-net interest rate, which increases 0.20pct and 0.11pct compared with the same period last year.
The overall situation of new orders is stable, and we continue to be optimistic about the future growth of the company. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of domestic orders has slowed down, but thanks to the continued increase in the layout of overseas channels, the company's overseas orders have grown rapidly, so the company's new orders are good and stable as a whole, and orders-on-hand are still abundant. In the future, with the recovery of domestic downstream demand and the gradual improvement of overseas channel layout, the sales scale continues to grow, and the company's orders are expected to further increase, and we continue to be optimistic about the future growth of the company.
Profit forecast: the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 is estimated to be RMB 3.23 million, which is + 23.10%, 25.70%, 22.83%, corresponding to EPS0.99/1.24/1.53 yuan, and the previous share price PE 19.94max 15.86max is 12.91 times, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected, and market competition intensifies.