Event: the company announced its three-quarter report in 2023, with an operating income of 30.395 billion yuan (+ 9.10% compared with the same period last year), a net profit of 2.189 billion yuan (+ 10.48% compared with the same period last year), and a non-return net profit of 2.16 billion yuan (+ 19.01%).
Comments: the performance is in line with expectations, the profit growth rate is faster than the income growth, the pharmaceutical industry maintains the growth trend, the layout is extensive, the second growth curve appears, the industrial microorganism plates are further deepened and strengthened, and the girl needles in the American protection plate are released rapidly. the acquisition of botulinum further expand the product territory, the company Becton Dickinson & Co has made rich progress, deepening the layout of topical preparations is expected to show advantages in the differentiated track. The indication of Lilaru peptide weight loss was successfully approved, and the company dug a deep hypoglycemic weight reduction pipeline to build a strong moat.
Profit forecast and valuation: as a white horse of traditional medicine, the four major sectors of medicine, commerce, industrial microbiology and beauty care are all marginal, the commercial sector is growing steadily, and the pharmaceutical sector is getting rid of the collection baggage. This year and next, more than innovative products are on the market, industrial microorganisms and beauty care plate are developing rapidly, we adjust the profit forecast for the company. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2023 to 2025 is 1.64,2.04,2.49 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price on October 25, 2023, the PE valuation is 24.3,19.6,16.1 times, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: centralized drug procurement risk, new drug research and development risk, product competition pattern aggravates risk