Q3光伏排产提升带动EVA盈利修复，2024年供需望改善。7-8月光伏产业链上游价格企穗，组件排产提升带动光伏胶膜及EVA需求提升，光伏EVA价格底部反弹至1.6-1.7万元/吨，叠加公司PP专用料、EOD特品等主要产品价格逐步企稳、毛利率提升，公司盈利能力有所修复，营业收入环比增长6%，销售毛利率环比提升2.9PCT至19.54%，2024年光伏需求有望维持30%增长，光伏EVA树脂需求持续增加，但 2024 年 EVA 新增装置较少，考虑装置爬产等因素，光伏EVA树脂价格及盈利有望回升。Brief comment on performance
On October 25, the company released its quarterly report for 2023, with revenue of 4.94 billion yuan in the first three quarters,-23% of the same period last year, and net profit of 400 million yuan, or-48% of the same period last year. Among them, Q3 realized operating income of 1.73 billion yuan, year-on-year-30%, month-on-month + 6%, net profit of 78 million yuan, year-on-year-76%, month-on-month-52%, deduction of non-return net profit of 56 million yuan,-80%, and + 40%. Non-recurrent gains and losses are mainly government subsidies.
Business analysis
The improvement of Q3 photovoltaic production leads to the profit repair of EVA, and the supply and demand is expected to improve in 2024. The price in the upper reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain increased from July to August, and the increase in module scheduling led to an increase in demand for photovoltaic film and EVA. The price of photovoltaic EVA rebounded to 1.6-17000 yuan / ton. The prices of major products such as PP special materials and EOD special products gradually stabilized, the gross profit margin increased, and the company's profitability was repaired. Operating income increased by 6% month-on-month, and sales gross profit margin increased 2.9PCT to 19.54%. Photovoltaic demand is expected to maintain 30% growth in 2024, photovoltaic EVA resin demand continues to increase, but there are few new EVA devices in 2024, considering the device climbing production and other factors, photovoltaic EVA resin prices and profits are expected to pick up.
Q4 multiple sets of units have been handed over or put into production, and the new products have contributed to the increment of performance since 2024. In the fourth quarter, the company will have a number of units completed and put into production, 90,000t / a VA plant will significantly reduce the cost of EVA products, 20,000t / a UHMWPE, 100000 t / a lactic acid and 40,000t / a PLA, 10,000 t / an electronic grade high purity special gas and other devices will increase the company's high gross margin product categories, expand revenue scale, enhance the company's overall profitability, and promote sustained growth.
Layout POE and then improve the new material platform, comprehensively enhance the competitiveness of photovoltaic materials. In order to enhance the company's competitiveness in photovoltaic materials, the company and Wilson CIC "independently developed a full set of POE technology, with industrialization conditions) to set up a joint venture company planning and construction of 300000 tons / year POE project, of which the first phase of 100000 tons of equipment is expected to be completed and put into production in 2025, which is expected to enrich the company's layout in the field of new energy materials and enhance profitability. In addition, the company's 200000-ton EVA plant is expected to be completed and put into production in 2025, and it will have a production capacity of 350000 tons of EVA and 100000 tons of POE in 2025, comprehensively enhancing the competitiveness of photovoltaic field.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
According to our latest forecast for product prices, the company's profit forecast for 2023-2025 will be lowered to RMB 5.6 (- 35%), 10.4 (- 6) and 12.1 (- 6) billion yuan, taking into account the high growth brought by the company's new material platform and maintaining its "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The price of the product is lower than expected; the construction of production expansion project and the research and development of new products are not as expected.
