The results of the three quarters were in line with expectations; the net profit of the first three quarters of 2023 was 179 million yuan, an increase of 37% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company realized operating income of 819 million yuan, an increase of 2.23% over the same period last year; and net profit of 17900 yuan, an increase of 36.79% over the same period last year. Deducting non-return net profit of 162 million yuan, an increase of 55.54% over the same period last year. In 2023Q3 alone, the company achieved operating income of 284 million yuan, an increase of 4.59% over the same period last year, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year, a net profit of 60.19 million yuan, an increase of 13.81% over the same period last year, a decrease of 9.99%, and a net profit of 55.89 million yuan, an increase of 29.1% over the same period last year and a decrease of 3.05%.
The profitability increased significantly; the gross profit margin of sales in the first three quarters of 2023 was 36.24%, which was higher than that of the same period last year. In terms of improving the profitability of 8.4pct, the gross profit margin of sales in the first three quarters of 2023 was 36.24%, an increase of 8.4 pct over the same period last year; and the net profit margin of sales was 21.97%, an increase of 5.8pct over the same period last year. The increase in profitability is mainly due to the decline in the price of raw materials, the relief of cost-side pressure, the optimization of superimposed product structure, and the increase in revenue share of products with high gross margin. 2023Q3's single-quarter gross profit margin was about 36.26%, up 1.19pct from the previous month; net sales margin was 21.22%, down 3.53pct from the previous month. From the expense point of view, the expense rate during the first three quarters of 2023 was 12.15%, an increase of 0.27pct compared with the same period last year. The rates of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses changed by-0.07, + 0.32, + 0.25, and-0.23pct, respectively. The expense rate during the single 2023Q3 period is 12.75%, and the month-on-month increase in 3.08pct is mainly due to the increase in 2.89pct of the financial expense rate compared with the previous month.
Under the trend of "sliding instead of rolling", the new energy vehicle and wind power industry continue to open the market space self-lubricating bearings are suitable for damp, dust, radiation and other harsh environments by virtue of their simple structure and high performance-to-price ratio. it is mainly used in construction machinery, automobile, port machinery, agricultural machinery and other fields. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and wind power industry, the demand for self-lubricating bearings is increasing. 1) New energy vehicles: self-lubricating bearings have the advantages of lightweight, low noise and no fuel supply, which meets the needs of lightweight new energy vehicles. The permeability of new energy vehicles increases, and the demand for self-lubricating bearings increases. We expect sales of new energy vehicles to reach 14.64 million in 2025, with penetration rising to 50% of CAGR 2022-2025. 2) Wind Power Industry:
With the advantages of simple structure, strong bearing capacity, excellent vibration absorption and anti-impact ability, self-lubricating bearing is suitable for the working condition of wind power main gearbox. At the same time, it can help wind power to reduce cost continuously by virtue of its cost-effective advantage. We estimate that the market scale of wind power gearbox bearings in China will reach 8.2 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be about 22% in 2022-2025.
Self-lubricating bearings have formed a pattern dominated by overseas professional self-lubricating bearing enterprises such as American GGB, Japanese Oiles, French Stain-Gobain and so on. The domestic self-lubricating bearing industry is beginning to take shape, and the domestic professional self-lubricating bearing enterprises represented by the company have competitive advantages in price and some technical indicators, and have achieved export.
Rely on multiple advantages to build core competitiveness, will increase the code wind bearings, ball screws, open the growth space for research and development, customers and with the mainframe factory synchronous development ability and other competitive advantages, for the company to build core competitiveness. At the same time, in 2022, the company launched fixed growth, production expansion to help the company's long-term development, and plans to raise no more than 446 million yuan for the expansion of self-lubricating bearings and ball screws, as well as the new production capacity of wind power self-lubricating bearings.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit of homing from 2023 to 2025 is about 2.44,2.94 and 375 million yuan respectively, an increase of 139%, 20% and 28% respectively over the same period last year. Corresponding to PE 21, 17 and 13 times, the "Buy" rating is maintained.
Risk Tips:
1) the repair of construction machinery demand is not as expected; 2) automobile production and sales are not as expected; 3) the price of raw materials is rising.