Brief comment on performance
On October 25, 2023, the company released the third quarter report of 2023. In the first three quarters of 23 years, the company realized income of 2.004 billion yuan (- 57%), net profit of 400 million yuan (- 68%) and non-return net profit of 337 million yuan (- 71%).
3Q23 realized income of 516 million yuan (- 22%) in a single quarter, net profit of 65 million yuan (+ 5%), and non-return net profit of 42 million yuan (- 0.3%).
Business analysis
The profitability is stable and the operating indicators are healthy. The year-on-year decline in revenue in the first three quarters of 23 was mainly due to a decrease in sales revenue from unconventional businesses. In the first three quarters of 23, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 62.84%, a net profit rate of 19.84%, and a sound profitability. The overall operating indicators are healthy, and the increase in financial expenses compared with the same period last year is mainly due to the increase in interest income on bank deposits caused by changes in exchange rate gains and losses.
Overseas markets have continued to deepen, and international influence has been further enhanced. After 22 years of the company reached a volume purchase price agreement with MedAccess and CHAI at the price of US $1 per person to provide HIVself-testing to low-and middle-income countries and regions, 23-year HIVself-testing was included in the Uganda AIDS prevention and control program, and the expansion of new channels laid the foundation for the introduction of follow-up products. In terms of brand influence, the company's quantitative fluorescence detection system can realize the mutual recognition of the results of immunofluorescence and chemiluminescence platform, which is suitable for more use scenarios. The research results of the research team of Malaysia University of Science show that the company's quantitative fluorescence detection system can effectively help monitor the PCT level of patients with ICU sepsis, the product has been recognized by international research, and the company's international influence has been further enhanced.
The domestic market is rich in production lines to better meet the market demand. The domestic market routine and the characteristic project are parallel, the product line is perfect. There is a high incidence of respiratory diseases in autumn. according to the data of the State Drug Administration, as of October 25, 23, the company had one registration certificate for swine flu testing reagents in the field of respiratory infectious diseases. One registration certificate for influenza B test reagent, one registration certificate for influenza A / B influenza virus antigen detection reagent, two registration certificate for adenovirus antigen detection reagent, and one registration certificate for mycoplasma pneumoniae detection reagent, etc., multi-product types better meet the market demand.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
Taking into account the macro-environmental impact of domestic health care, we have lowered our profit forecasts for 23-25 by 10%, 14% and 15%. It is estimated that the company's net profit for 23-25 years will be 5.01,6.29 and 785 million yuan respectively, which is 1.1,1.4,1.80 yuan for-58%, + 25% and + 25% respectively compared with the same period last year. The current price corresponds to 22,18,14 times PE, and the "Buy" rating is maintained.
Risk hint
International macro environmental risk; new product R & D registration risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; product promotion risk is not up to expectation.