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We Think Black Peony (Group) (SHSE:600510) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Black Peony (Group) (SHSE:600510) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我們認爲Black Peony(集團)(上海證券交易所代碼:600510)正在爲其債務承擔一些風險
Simply Wall St ·  2023/10/26 08:03

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Black Peony (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600510) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

由伯克希爾哈撒韋的Li·芒格支持的外部基金經理Lu直言不諱地說,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。因此,當你考慮到任何一隻股票的風險有多大時,你需要考慮債務可能是顯而易見的,因為太多的債務可能會讓一家公司倒閉。我們可以看到黑牡丹(集團)有限公司。(上海證券交易所:600510)確實在其業務中使用債務。但這筆債務對股東來說是一個擔憂嗎?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業發展的一種工具,但如果一家企業無法償還貸款人的債務,那麼它就只能聽從貸款人的擺佈。在最糟糕的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人的債務,它可能會破產。然而,一種更常見(但仍令人痛苦)的情景是,它不得不以低價籌集新的股本,從而永久性地稀釋股東。話雖如此,最常見的情況是一家公司對債務管理得相當好--並對自己有利。在考慮一家公司的債務水準時,第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。

View our latest analysis for Black Peony (Group)

查看我們對黑牡丹(集團)的最新分析

What Is Black Peony (Group)'s Net Debt?

黑牡丹(集團)S淨負債是什麼?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Black Peony (Group) had debt of CN¥11.1b, up from CN¥10.1b in one year. However, it does have CN¥3.99b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥7.16b.

下面的圖片顯示,截至2023年9月,黑牡丹(集團)的債務為111億元人民幣,高於一年內的101億元人民幣。然而,它確實有39.9億加元的現金來抵消這一點,導致淨債務約為71.6億加元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600510 Debt to Equity History October 26th 2023
上證綜指:600510債轉股歷史2023年10月26日

A Look At Black Peony (Group)'s Liabilities

黑牡丹(集團)S負債一瞥

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Black Peony (Group) had liabilities of CN¥12.1b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥8.04b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥3.99b as well as receivables valued at CN¥11.7b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥4.44b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,黑牡丹(集團)有121億元人民幣的負債在12個月內到期,80.4億元人民幣的負債在12個月內到期。作為對這些債務的抵消,該公司有39.9億加元的現金以及價值117億加元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多44.4億元。

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of CN¥6.17b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Black Peony (Group)'s use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

與黑牡丹61.7億元的市值相比,這一赤字是相當可觀的,因此這確實表明股東應該密切關注S對債務的使用。這表明,如果黑牡丹需要匆忙支撐其資產負債表,股東的權益將被嚴重稀釋。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我們通過查看公司的淨債務除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),並計算其息稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋利息支出(利息覆蓋)的容易程度,來衡量公司的債務負擔與其盈利能力的關係。因此,我們考慮債務相對於收益,包括折舊和攤銷費用。

Black Peony (Group) has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.9, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. But its EBIT was about 1k times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. Pleasingly, Black Peony (Group) is growing its EBIT faster than former Australian PM Bob Hawke downs a yard glass, boasting a 148% gain in the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Black Peony (Group)'s earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

黑牡丹(集團)的債務與EBITDA的比率為3.9,這意味著大量債務,但對於大多數類型的業務來說,仍然是相當合理的。但它的息稅前利潤大約是利息支出的1K倍,這意味著該公司並沒有真的付出高昂的成本來維持這樣的債務水準。即使低成本被證明是不可持續的,這也是一個好跡象。令人欣喜的是,黑牡丹(集團)息稅前利潤的增長速度快於澳大利亞前總理鮑勃·霍克放下院子玻璃的速度,在過去12個月中增長了148%。在分析債務水準時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但影響未來資產負債表狀況的是黑牡丹(集團)S的盈利情況。因此,當考慮債務時,絕對值得關注盈利趨勢。點擊此處查看互動快照。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Black Peony (Group) burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

但我們的最後考慮也很重要,因為一家公司不能用賬面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,有必要檢查這筆息稅前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去的三年裡,黑牡丹(集團)燒掉了大量的現金。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務的風險大得多。

Our View

我們的觀點

We feel some trepidation about Black Peony (Group)'s difficulty conversion of EBIT to free cash flow, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its interest cover and EBIT growth rate were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Black Peony (Group) is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Black Peony (Group) (at least 2 which are potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

我們對黑牡丹(集團)S難以將息稅前利潤轉換為自由現金流感到不安,但我們也有積極的方面需要關注。換句話說,它的利息覆蓋率和息稅前利潤增長率都是令人鼓舞的跡象。綜上所述,在我們看來,由於黑牡丹(集團)的債務,它確實是一項有一定風險的投資。並不是所有的風險都是壞的,因為如果它得到了回報,它可以提高股價回報,但這種債務風險值得記住。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。我們已經確定了三個警告信號與黑牡丹(集團)(至少2個可能是嚴重的),並瞭解他們應該是你投資過程的一部分。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下購買股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,今天就來看看我們的淨現金成長型股票獨家名單。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫.或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是暗示Wallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性.我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議.它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況.我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析.請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內.Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉.

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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