Core viewpoints
2023Q3, the company realized operating income of 31.557 billion yuan, year-on-year-17.72%; net profit of 383 million yuan, + 14.80%; and net profit of 273 million yuan, + 2.96% of the same period last year. On the one hand, Sumida focuses on expanding its business in "Belt and Road Initiative" countries and regions; on the other hand, the company's business is diversified and its business strategy is relatively flexible, balancing performance through the industrial chain under the pressure of commodities and mechanical and electrical equipment business. With macroeconomic stabilization, Sumida's performance growth is expected to continue to improve.
Event
2023Q1-Q3, the company realized operating income of 96.061 billion yuan, year-on-year-16.44%; net profit of 895 million yuan, + 13.78%; and non-return net profit of 703 million yuan, + 2.74%.
2023Q3, the company realized operating income of 31.557 billion yuan, year-on-year-17.72%; net profit of 383 million yuan, + 14.80%; and net profit of 273 million yuan, + 2.96% of the same period last year.
Brief comment
China's trade growth is under pressure, and the company is resilient. In the first three quarters, in dollar terms, China's imports and exports fell 6.4% from a year earlier, of which exports fell 5.7% and imports fell 7.5%. China's foreign trade shows some pressure. In terms of regional segmentation, trade growth between China and "Belt and Road Initiative" countries and regions is relatively good. In the first three quarters, China's imports and exports to the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries increased by 3.1% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 46.5% of the total value of imports and exports. Imports and exports to emerging markets such as Central Asia, Africa and Latin America increased by 33.7%, 6.7% and 5.1%, respectively.
On the one hand, Sumida focuses on expanding its business in "Belt and Road Initiative" countries and regions; on the other hand, Sumida has diversified businesses and relatively flexible business strategies, under the pressure of commodities and mechanical and electrical equipment business. balance performance through industry chain business. As a result, even if the company's revenue has declined due to fluctuations in the commodities business, the company's profits have achieved solid and positive growth, highlighting the company's operational resilience.
China's economy is stabilizing and rebounding, and the growth rate of foreign exports has improved from the previous month, with growth rates of-14.3% in July,-8.7% in August and-6.2% in September. With macroeconomic stabilization, Sumida's performance growth is expected to continue to improve.
The ship business has a high bearing, and the standby power supply project continues to be expanded. In August 2023, Sumida successfully delivered its first new version of CROWN 63, with a total of 15 new ships delivered in the first three quarters, including 5 CROWN 63PLUS ships, and four new CROWN82 2.0 bulk carriers were signed.
Sumida Mechanical and Electrical Co., Ltd. successfully won the bid for the backup power supply project of Hexing data Technology Industry Park. Heying data Science and Technology Industry Park is an important part of Zhangjiakou data center cluster of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei national hub node of national integrated computing network, and it is also the first green zero-carbon data center cluster around Beijing. The project is a new order from the same data center cluster received by the mechanical and electrical company since it provided backup power for the he Ying data Technology Industrial Park in 2022.
Investment suggestion: from 2023 to 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.015 billion yuan, 1.141 billion yuan and 1.257 billion yuan, with the current stock price corresponding to 9X, 8X and 7X respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk analysis.
1. The global economy is complex and changeable, trade protection is intensified: trade protection and trade frictions are intensified, and companies' export products are vulnerable to restrictions, affecting business performance.
2. Geopolitical risk: the company's overseas business accounts for a large proportion, with factories, offices and project departments in some overseas areas. geopolitical tension makes the company face safety risks and operational risks. 3. Exchange rate fluctuation risk: the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will affect the sales of the company's export or import products and have an uncertain impact on the company's overseas business. 4. Competition aggravates the risk that business development is less than expected: in the harsh economic environment, market competition intensifies, model innovation speeds up, and the company faces the risk that the breadth and depth of business development are less than expected.