Core ideas:
Event: the company disclosed "the latest business news for the nine months ended September 30, 2023". 23Q1-3 Club Med and others, Sanya Atlantis, Holiday Asset Management Center and Resort and related businesses (collectively referred to as tourism operations) achieved a total turnover of about 14.191 billion yuan (at the same exchange rate), an increase of about 19.4% over the same period last year. Benefiting from the overall growth of core businesses such as resorts and tourist destinations after the relaxation of global travel restrictions, 23Q1-3 turned its net profit back to profit compared with the same period in 22 years.
Sub-business point of view: Club Med returned to the 19-year level, the Asia-Pacific region tourism demand strong recovery. The turnover of 23Q1-3 Club Med increased by about 21.3% to 11.781 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 16.8% over the same period of 19 years. Thanks to the continued growth of the European, African, Middle East and American markets and the strong recovery of demand in the Asia-Pacific market, net profit increased steadily compared with the same period in 22 and 19 years. The capacity of the 23Q1-3 resort increased by 6.7 per cent year-on-year to 97.2 per cent in the same period in 19 years. The global average occupancy rate increased by 2.0pp to 63.0% compared with the same period last year, a difference of 3.0% compared with the same period in 19 years. ADR increased by 10.0% year-on-year to 1682 yuan, up 31.5% from the same period in 19 years. Tourism destination business:
The turnover of Atlantis 23Q1-3 was about 1.368 billion yuan, an increase of 83.2% over the same period last year. The number of visitors, average occupancy rate and ADR were 4.9 million yuan, 85.1% and 2504 yuan respectively. The turnover of Lijiang Mediterranean International Resort was about 90.2 million yuan, an increase of 26.3%.
In terms of bookings for the second half of 23 years, as of October 7, 23, Club Med recorded a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6% in the second half of 23 years, an increase of 23% over the same period in 19 years, and a cumulative increase of 22% in the first half of 24 years.
Profit forecasts and investment advice. It is estimated that the 23-25 year net profit will be 4.7,7.1 and 870 million yuan respectively, maintaining the previous reasonable value of HK $14.07 per share, corresponding to 34 times the 23-year PE, and maintaining the "buy" rating. (the exchange rate adopted in this article is 1 Hong Kong dollar = 0.93 RMB)
Risk hint. The progress of the new project is not as expected; the infiltration of high-end tourism demand is slow; exchange rate fluctuations