This report is read as follows:
Lower profit forecast, lower target price, maintain overweight rating; performance is in line with expectations, industry destocking still needs to be eliminated; 400G OTN, Dintong 800G drive TFLN application.
Main points of investment:
Lower earnings forecasts, lower target prices, and maintain overweight ratings. The company reported results in three quarters slightly lower than expected. Considering that it will take time for the industry to recover, we downgrade the net profit attributed to the parent company from 2023 to 2025 to be 0.65 (- 34.00%) / 1.33 (- 7.70) / 1.97 (- 6.84) billion yuan, corresponding to EPS0.26/0.54/0.80 yuan. However, we expect that with the application of 400G OTN technology and 800G digital optical module, the development of thin film chips is expected to accelerate. Consider the valuation of the optical chip industry, give 2024 100x PE, lower the target price to 54 yuan (the previous value of 59 yuan), maintain the overweight rating.
The performance is slightly lower than expected, and the industry destocking still needs to be eliminated. The company reported revenue of 185 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 3.63% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 15 million yuan, down 53.34% from the same period last year.
The scale of revenue is similar to that of the same period in 2022, but the profit decreases greatly, mainly due to the fact that the industrial laser industry has entered the destocking cycle since 2022, and the company has adopted a more proactive sales strategy in order to open up the market. at the same time, the company increased its research and development of thin film lithium niobate modulator and lidar light source module, resulting in an increase in R & D costs higher than revenue growth in the same period, bringing some pressure on short-term profits.
400G OTN and 800G Datong drive TFLN applications. China's backbone network began to enter the 400G upgrade cycle in 2023, and we expect to accelerate the application of carrier-grade thin film lithium niobate chips. In addition, the market for 800G digital optical modules driven by AI is growing rapidly, and module companies in the industry, such as AOI, Xinyi Sheng and Liante Technology, all exhibit 800G modules loaded with TFLN solutions at different exhibitions, and the above technology trends are expected to accelerate the application of thin film lithium niobate in optical modules.
Catalyst: the company obtains further orders, and the company's main business continues to pick up.
Risk hint: the progress of industrialization is not as expected, and the recovery of the main industry is expected.