The company recently released its three-quarter report for 2023, with operating income of 3.072 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 25.09% over the same period last year; net profit of 492 million yuan, down 16.66%; and non-return net profit of 490 million yuan, down 20.06% from the same period last year.
There was a marked improvement in third-quarter results and earnings compared with the previous quarter. 2023Q3, the company realized operating income of 1.192 billion yuan (YoY+37.13%,QoQ+35.15%), net profit of 218 million yuan (YoY-0.48%,QoQ+89.57%) and non-return net profit of 216 million yuan (YoY-10.30%,QoQ+84.62%).
In terms of profitability, the Q3 gross profit margin of the company is 39.94% (YoY-11.82pcts,QoQ+7.82pcts) and the net profit rate is 19.38% (YoY-7.00pcts, QoQ+6.20pcts).
The company's performance improved significantly in the third quarter, which is expected to be related to the profit repair of the company's phosphoric acid, monoammonium phosphate, calcium dihydrogen phosphate and other products, and the increase in phosphate ore sales with high gross profit margin.
The average price of products fell in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, and the prices of some varieties rebounded at the bottom recently. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average price of phosphate ore (30% Hubei ship plate price) Q3 is 895.33 yuan / ton (YoY-10.52%,QoQ-12.53%). On October 23rd, the price is 970yuan / ton, compared with the July low + 14.12%. The average price of industrial grade monoammonium phosphate (73%) Q3 is 5054.51 yuan / ton (YoY-24.92%,QoQ-6.63%), October 23rd price is 5357 yuan / ton, compared with July low + 11.30%; feed grade calcium dihydrogen phosphate (Guizhou) Q3 average price is 3350.78 yuan / ton (YoY-27.14%, QoQ-6.52%), October 23rd price is 3500 yuan / ton, compared with July low + 14.38%.
Integrate phosphate rock resources and improve the layout of the industrial chain. The company actively integrates raw material production enterprises, and has acquired Xiaoba Phosphate Mine, Xinqiao Phosphate Mine and Jigongling Phosphate Mine. As of the first half of this year, the company has a phosphate rock production capacity of 3 million tons per year, and phosphate rock is basically self-sufficient. It provides a strong resource guarantee for follow-up production and reduces the impact of phosphate ore price fluctuations on the company's operating costs. In the meantime, the company actively promotes the construction of 30,000t / a hydrogen fluoride project, 1.5 million t / a medium-and low-grade phosphate ore comprehensive utilization mineral processing equipment and supporting facilities, new mineralization integrated phosphorus resources intensive processing project, Weng'an County "mineralization integrated" new energy material recycling industry project. With the promotion of the company's projects under construction, the company's strategic planning for the transformation from the traditional phosphorus chemical industry to new energy materials has been gradually implemented, which is conducive to enhancing the overall competitiveness.
Investment suggestion: the company is committed to improving the phosphate chemical industry chain from phosphate ore to phosphate products, vigorously implementing the "mineralization integrated" industrial model; at the same time, actively doing a good job in the development of new products at the end of the industrial chain, and constantly opening up new business profit growth points. It is estimated that the company's basic earnings per share in 2023 is 1.50 yuan, the current share price is 12 times earnings, maintain the overweight rating.
Risk hints: the project schedule and returns are lower than expected risks, the continued weak demand in Europe and the United States leads to lower-than-expected risks in exports, the domestic macroeconomic recovery is not as expected, and the substantial increase in industry supply leads to increased risks in industry competition. the occurrence of force majeure events such as natural and man-made disasters.