Q3 performance is in line with expectations, profitability continues to repair, and maintains a "buy" rating
The company released the third quarterly report of 2023, with revenue of 1.127 billion yuan in the first three quarters, + 13.51% compared with the same period last year; net profit of return to the mother was 172 million yuan, + 15.14% compared with the same period last year; of which Q3 realized revenue of 414 million yuan, + 47.62% year-on-year and + 2.29% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of return to the mother was 72.14 million yuan, + 79.38% year-on-year and + 4.84% compared with the same period last year.
According to the operation of the company and the recovery of downstream demand, we downgrade the profit forecast for 2023 and maintain the profit forecast for 2024-2025. it is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 2.63,4.33 and 562 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.61 yuan (- 0.14,1.00,1.30 yuan per share) respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 43.7,26.6,20.5 times of PE. We are optimistic that the company will continue to promote capacity expansion and new project construction, have sufficient momentum for future growth and maintain a "buy" rating.
Profitability continued to repair in the first three quarters of 2023, the project construction was orderly, and the company had sufficient driving force for growth.
In terms of profitability, in the first three quarters of 2023, the company's sales gross profit margin and net profit margin were 35.77% and 15.31% respectively, respectively, which were + 6.32/+2.56pcts compared with 2022. Among them, Q3 sales gross profit margin and net profit rate were 40.20% and 17.43% respectively, respectively, compared with the previous quarter and + 6.4/+0.42pcts, respectively. The profitability continued to repair obviously. In terms of projects under construction, (1) carrying: the company's paper carrier has a market share of more than 60 percent and is in the process of continuous expansion, it is expected that the fifth electronic base paper production line of 2023Q4 will enter trial production, with an annual production capacity of 28800 tons; the "annual output of 175000 tons of paper and plastic tape for thin packaging of chip electronic components" is being implemented as planned, and the production capacity of paper carrier will be further increased after the project is put into production. (2) release membrane: at present, the annual production capacity of release membrane is 300 million square meters; the release membrane planning of Zhaoqing base in Guangdong Province is 200 million square meters / year, of which 100 million square meters in the first phase and 100 million square meters in the second phase will determine the investment rhythm according to the customer's release progress; the release membrane with an annual production capacity of 480 million square meters in Tianjin base is going through environmental assessment, energy assessment procedures and plant design is also being optimized. In addition, the BOPET membrane Phase II project equipment for MLCC release membrane is expected to arrive in 2024, and the plant is under construction. After the project is completed, the total capacity of base membrane will reach 38,000 tons / year, which is conducive to the gradual extension of the company's release membrane products from the low end to the middle and high end, and there are plans to promote the verification and small batch trial of release membrane products in South Korea and Japan.
Risk tips: downstream demand recovery is not as expected, project progress is not as expected, exchange rate fluctuations, and so on.