According to the company's quarterly report for 2023, 2023 1-3Q achieved a revenue of 16.342 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit of 355 million yuan, a decrease of 39.5%. The company's business layout continues to improve, and its competitiveness is expected to continue to enhance. Maintain the company's buy rating.
Support the main points of rating
Performance pressure, good cash flow. The revenue of 2023 1-3Q company was 16.342 billion yuan, with a decrease of 10.40%, while the net profit returned to its mother was 355 million yuan, with a decrease of 39.49%. 2023Q3's revenue was 5.538 billion yuan, down 13.21%, and the net profit returned to its mother was 190 million yuan, down 7.22%. In terms of cash flow, the net operating cash flow of 2023 1-3Q company was-1.603 billion yuan, and the net outflow was also reduced by 33.2%. Among them, the net operating cash flow of the company in the third quarter was-81 million yuan, and the net outflow decreased by 84.4%. The company's cash flow performance improved significantly in the third quarter.
The profitability increased slightly, and the expense rate increased over the same period last year. 2023 1-3Q company's comprehensive gross profit margin is 10.31%, minus 0.75pct; net profit rate is 2.17%, same as minus 1.01pct. Among them, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin in the third quarter was 11.85%, with an increase of 0.15pct; the net return to the mother was 3.44%, with an increase of 0.30pct. The company's profitability increased slightly in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. In terms of the period expense rate, the 2023 1-3Q company's period expense rate was 6.25%, with the same increase of 0.97pct, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate increased by 0.18/0.26/0.14/0.39pct respectively compared with the same period last year.
2023 1-3Q company mixed sales unit price decline compared with the same period last year, or mainly due to weak demand. 2023 1-3Q Company signed 9629.97 million square meters of merchants, an increase of 0.24%, and a total of 4120.25 million square meters of merchant sales, a decrease of 0.06%.
The number of contracts and sales of 2023Q3 companies were 3705.94 million square meters and 1485.10 million square meters respectively, changing by 17.94% and-0.45% respectively compared with the same period last year. We estimate that the unit price of commercial concrete in the company from the first to the third quarter of 2023 is about 384.7 yuan per square meter, which is the same as a decrease of 43.6 yuan per square meter. The unit price of mixed sales in the third quarter is about 361.7 yuan per square meter, with a decrease of 52.4 yuan per square meter. We believe that the main reason is that the sluggish real estate start data in the first to third quarters of this year and the lower-than-expected physical workload of infrastructure have led to a lack of obvious recovery in demand for businessmen, and it is difficult for sales unit prices to rise.
The company's business layout continues to improve, and its competitiveness is expected to be enhanced. On September 4, 2023, the company registered and established China Construction West Construction Mining Co., Ltd., which mainly engaged in mineral resources (non-media mine) mining, construction stone processing and other business, which is helpful for the company to accelerate the landing of sand and gravel industry planning and realize the professional management of sand and gravel business. On October 20, 2023, the company, together with China Construction Science and Technology Innovation and China Construction International, jointly funded the establishment of a joint venture China Construction carbon Neutralization Research Institute Co., Ltd., which will help the company seize the development opportunities in the low-carbon field and promote the implementation of the "double carbon" strategy. speed up the improvement of business layout, further improve the company's competitiveness and meet market demand.
Valuation
The company's third-quarter results are better than we expected, and we adjust the company's profit forecast accordingly. It is estimated that the company's income from 2023 to 2025 is 225.5 yuan, 248.7 yuan and 27.57 billion yuan, the net profit of returning to the mother is 4.8,6.7 and 810 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.38,0.53,0.64 yuan. Maintain the company's buy rating.
Main risks faced by rating
The landing of infrastructure is not as expected, the effect of business expansion is not as expected, and the effect of strategic cooperation is not as expected.