The leading digital manufacturer of central enterprises maintains the "buy" rating.
Considering the continuous increase of the company's investment and the impact of incentive fees, we reduce the company's homing net profit forecast for 2023-2025 to 1.96,2.72 and 374 million yuan (the original forecast is 2.32,3.15,424 million yuan), EPS is 0.97,1.34,1.84 yuan per share, and the current stock price corresponds to 22.3,16.1 and 11.7 times of PE. Consider the forward-looking layout of the company in Xinchuang ERP, digital construction and other fields. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Q3 single-quarter revenue growth of 32.7%, performance inflection point
(1) the company realized operating income of 278 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, an increase of 8.16% over the same period last year, and realized a net profit of-30.8669 million yuan. Of this total, Q3 achieved an operating income of 125 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 32.74% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 887000 yuan. The rapid growth of Q3 revenue is mainly due to the gradual increase of new customers, business expansion in new areas, and the follow-up operation and maintenance business of completed projects. (2) the gross profit margin of the company in the first three quarters was 42.97%, down 5.88 percentage points from the same period last year. The company's sales expense rate was 16.38%, an increase of 12.33% over the same period last year, mainly due to the failure to obtain customer orders for the construction integration project and the carry-over of sales expenses for the previous project. The rate of management expenses of the company was 22.83%, an increase of 4.27% over the same period last year, mainly due to the expansion of the size of the company, the increase in leased housing and the increase in rent; the increase in the number of managers led to an increase in salary costs and the implementation of equity incentive share payment fees and other factors. (3) at the end of the third quarter, the company's inventory was 218 million yuan, an increase of 197.06% over the beginning of the year, mainly due to the continuous expansion of the company's business scale and the existence of a certain delivery cycle for large group customer projects, resulting in an increase in the cost of delivering customer projects. To some extent, the increase in inventory shows that the company is full of orders on hand, which lays the foundation for subsequent performance growth.
Adhere to the two focus strategies, actively cultivate new strategic customers, and strive to expand new business areas on the one hand, the company has stable business in Petrochina, China Petroleum & Chemical, CNOOC, National Pipe Network, China Construction and China Rallway, and strives to expand from the field of financial and group management information construction to the field of production management. Deeply participate in customer's domestic ERP scheme design and software development work. On the other hand, the company's treasurer business has expanded more central state-owned enterprise customers, the company with the help of treasurer business advantages to actively expand the group management and control new business.
Risk hints: macroeconomic situation fluctuation risk, technology upgrading risk, internal governance risk.