Source: Brokers China Author: Chen Jing
The words and actions of well-known fund managers have attracted much attention from the market.
Recently, a number of well-known fund managers, including Liu Yanchun of Jingshun Great Wall, Zhu Shaoxing of Wells Fargo Fund, Liu Geyi of Guangfa Fund, and Zhang Kun of Yi Fangda Fund, and Zhang Kun of Yi Fangda Fund, disclosed the 2023 three-quarter report.
Judging from the position adjustments in the third quarter, Liu Yanchun reduced his holdings$Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) $,$Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) $; Liu Gesong adheres to existing holdings and has not made major structural adjustments; Zhang Kun has adjusted the allocation structure of consumer and pharmaceutical industries, and Zhu Shaoxing will remove more “stones” in the future, etc.
In response to the current situation, some fund managers bluntly called “freezing three feet is not a day cold.” Looking ahead to the future market, many fund managers said that after the decline in the third quarter, the overall valuation appeal of the equity market has further increased. They are firmly optimistic about the prospects for stock asset returns, are hopeful about the future market, and believe that the market will eventually return to rationality.
Liu Yanchun: Downplaying short-term economic changes will focus more on the micro level of enterprises
In the third quarter, Liu Yanchun mainly made some adjustments to his existing holdings. Judging from the latest holdings in the Jingshun Great Wall Dingyi Third Quarterly Report, the top ten most heavily held stocks are still concentrated in Moutai, Kweichow,$Furui Gong Liquor (000596.SZ) $,$Medicated Kangde (02359.HK) $,$Free in China (018880.HK) $Other major consumer sectors. Compared with the previous quarter, positions were increased in the third quarter$Mindray Healthcare (300760.SZ) $, reduced holdings in Luzhou Laojiao and Kweichow Moutai; in addition,$Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) $Newly ranked in the top ten most heavily traded stocks.
In terms of holdings, Liu Yanchun said in the third quarter report that the portfolio for the third quarter was relatively stable, and that business model, profitability, and development potential are still key indicators to focus on, downplaying stock price fluctuations brought about by short-term changes in the economy.
“The three-foot freeze is not a one-day cold. The three years of the pandemic have caused great damage to various economic players. Combined with the transformation pain brought about by industrial restructuring, it is very difficult to restore market confidence.” Liu Yanchun said,
Looking forward to the future, Liu Yanchun said that the market is too pessimistic about the short-term performance and long-term prospects of the economy. Over the next 3-6 months, he will focus more on the micro level of the enterprise. Entrepreneurial ability can be better reflected in adversity, and he is more willing to adjust the mix based on this. Over the past three years, various risks have been constantly emerging. Factors other than business operations have greatly disrupted stock pricing. This process is nearing its end, and it is expected that the equity market will soon be exhausted.
Zhu Shaoxing: Find value in high-quality stocks and knock over more “stones”
The “one-stop-shop” Fuguo Tianhui Select Growth, managed by Zhu Shaoxing, revealed the 2023 three-quarter report. The third quarterly report shows that by the end of the third quarter, the fund's size was about 30.9 billion yuan, a slight decrease compared to 32.1 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter.
Judging from holdings, Zhu Shaoxing made some adjustments to the top ten heavy-traded stocks in the third quarter.$Sinqi Eye Drug (300573.SZ) $,$Mindray Healthcare (300760.SZ) $,$Ningde Era (300750.SZ) $,$Lanxiao Technology (300487.SZ) $Quit the top ten,$Jerry Shares (002353.SZ) $,$Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) $,$Lixun Precision (002475.SZ) $,$Dongfang Yuhong (002271.SZ) $Entered the top ten. It is worth mentioning that these new top ten individual stocks have also held positions before, mainly by increasing their positions. Also, in the third quarter, Zhu Shaoxing greatly increased his position as a leader in private oil services$Jerry Shares (002353.SZ) $The number of shares held increased from 7.5 million shares at the end of the second quarter to 29 million shares at the end of the third quarter; holdings were reduced$Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) $,$Aier Ophthalmology (300015.SZ) $.
Zhu Shaoxing said in the third quarter report that the recovery shown in the third quarter data is still not very strong, but it can be seen that positive factors are at play in the process. After three quarters of decline, the overall valuation attractiveness of the equity market has further increased. Currently, it doesn't make much sense to focus too much on all kinds of biased static data.
“We remain confident in the long-term resilience of the Chinese economy. In a longer time dimension, the current market fluctuations investors choose to endure should be worth it. In the future, we will continue to strive to find value in high-quality stocks and remove more 'stones'. We do not have the reliable ability to accurately predict short-term market trends, but instead focus our energy on patiently collecting excellent companies with promising prospects, waiting for the realization of the company's own value creation and the cyclical return of market sentiment at some point in the future.” Zhu Shaoxing further stated.
Xie Zhiyu: Maintain high position operations and find excellent companies with good investment cost performance
According to the third quarterly report, the net stock values of Xie Zhiyu managed by Xie Zhiyu and Xing Quan Heyi at the end of the third quarter all accounted for over 93% of the fund's net worth, a change compared to the end of the second quarter.
Regarding asset allocation, Xie Zhiyu stated in the quarterly report that she maintained a high position during the reporting period. In the future, she will continue to explore the company's long-term growth value and continue to search for excellent companies with good investment cost performance.
Judging from changes in positions, the above few funds mainly reduced their holdings in the third quarter$Sanan Optoelectronics (600703.SH) $,$Haier Smart Home (06690.HK) $,$Hikvision (002415.SZ) $, added$Bull Group (603195.SH) $,$Jing Chen Co., Ltd. (688099.SH) $,$Lanqi Technology (688008.SH) $Other individual stock holdings; in terms of Hong Kong stocks, there has been a major increase$Medicinal Biology (02269.HK) $Your holdings have been reduced$Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) $Wait for individual stocks.
At the macro level, Xie Zhiyu analyzed that second- and third-tier cities gradually opened restrictions on real estate purchases in the third quarter. Under moderate policy stimulus, first-hand real estate sales improved slightly, but sustainability was weak. Local bond issuance still has strict project assessment requirements. It is expected that the annual issuance scale will be completed in the fourth quarter, and overall fiscal and monetary policies will be dominated by backstopping. Internationally, interest rates on the US dollar are hovering at a high level, compounded by the intensification of the conflict between Palestine and Israel once again, and prices of resource products fluctuate at high levels. Therefore, it will still take some time for raw material prices to decline further, thereby increasing the dividends of manufacturing gross margin. The recession in the US economy is not obvious, and high interest rates have a siphoning effect on the liquidity of other economies.
Liu Geyun: Stick to existing positions and believe the market will eventually return to rationality
According to the third quarterly report of the Guangfa Small Cap Growth Fund managed by Liu Gesong, the fund stuck to its existing positions in the third quarter and did not make major structural adjustments.
By the end of the third quarter, the top ten heavy-traded stocks with small capitalization growth in GF were$Celis (601127.SH) $,$Shengbang Shares (300661.SZ) $,$Jingao Technology (002459.SZ) $,$Longji Green Energy (601012.SH) $,$Follett (601865.SH) $,$League of Nations Shares (603613.SH) $,$ billion lithium energy (300014.SZ) $,$Pratt (002324.SZ) $,$Zhuo Shengwei (300782.SZ) $,$Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ) $. Compared with the previous quarter, League of Nations, Pratt, Jinlang Technology, Shengbang Co., Ltd., and Zhuo Shengwei won additional positions.
It is worth mentioning that the heavy-traded stocks Celis and Shengbang Co., Ltd. skyrocketed due to the “Huawei Auto Hot Spot” three-quarter report. 10/25,$Shenglong Co., Ltd. (603178.SH) $After the opening of the market, it quickly surged and hit a stop again, and recorded 12 consecutive runs; since September, Celis's increase has doubled.
In response to the current market, Liu Gesong analyzed that in the proposed definition of a global comparative advantage manufacturing industry, growth industries and companies such as new energy, automobiles, and electronics all performed well in terms of performance growth and contributions to shareholder returns. What the market is worried about is that the decline in growth rate after the outbreak of a high boom and subsequent intensification of competition in the industry will have a negative impact on the company's profitability. Investments based on the sustainability of a high growth rate are inherently unobjective. Most of the company's value is in terms of the length of time it has maintained growth. As the objectivity of market shareholding increases, at a stage where the objective business environment has changed a lot, the valuation appeal of advantageous industries that have maintained strong growth in performance is already high. From the perspective of competition within the industry, in product competition with a high degree of uniformity, it was common in the manufacturing industry in the past to reduce prices and sacrifice gross margin, but in industries where there is a competitive advantage in product technology, the weight of product power comparison is gradually becoming a major factor. At the same time, under the detailed operation of cost or integrated management, we are optimistic about the stability of the profitability of leading companies that have mastered core competitiveness.
Looking forward to the future, Liu Gesong said that with the gradual implementation of macroeconomic policies, steady economic recovery, and capital outflows slowing down, the situation where valuation scores and growth growth rates are clearly mismatched will gradually change, and the market will eventually return to rationality after experiencing extreme sentiment. In the medium to long term, the appeal of growth targets is already remarkable, and he is also full of confidence in holding positions.
Zhang Kun: The allocation structure of consumer and pharmaceutical industries has been adjusted
According to the three-quarter report of Yi Fangda Blue Chip Selection managed by Zhang Kun, the fund's stock positions were basically stable in the third quarter, and the allocation structure for consumer and pharmaceutical industries was adjusted. In terms of individual stocks, it still owns high-quality companies with excellent business models, clear industry patterns, and strong competitiveness.
Judging from the top ten heavily-traded stocks, Zhang Kun reduced his holdings in the third quarter$Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) $,$Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) $, holdings increased$Wuliangye (000858.SZ) $,$Yanghe Shares (002304.SZ) $; In terms of Hong Kong stocks, holdings have been reduced$CNOOC (00883.HK) $,$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $.
Zhang Kun said in the quarterly report that with the successive introduction of a series of policies, the economy is expected to stabilize in the future. In addition to his basic judgment on the economy, in the quarterly report, Zhang Kun once again discussed some of his views on enterprise development, IPO financing, and the repurchase of listed companies in a lengthy section.
“For fundamental investors, they often spend a lot of energy analyzing and judging the company's future net profit level, but net profit is not the ultimate return. There is still a lack of two-step transformation to shareholders' returns. One is net profit to free cash flow, and the other is free cash flow into shareholders' pockets.” Zhang Kun said.
He said that in the current state where valuations of high-quality companies are generally very attractive, the increase in value of repurchases to long-term shareholders is significantly greater than the same amount of dividends. The total number of shares of more and more high-quality companies can continue to decline over time. This is equivalent to long-term investors being able to slowly increase their share holdings in high-quality companies over time.
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