Event: the company announced that in the third quarter of 2023, during the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 10.682 billion yuan, an increase of 10.73% over the same period last year, a net profit of 3.612 billion yuan, an increase of 4.27%, and a non-return net profit of 3.616 billion yuan, an increase of 5.42% over the same period last year. The single Q3 company realized revenue of 4.514 billion yuan, an increase of 18.32% over the same period last year, a net profit of 1.452 billion yuan, an increase of 7.98%, and a non-return net profit of 1.452 billion yuan, an increase of 9.05% over the same period last year.
Long-acting growth hormone continues to grow, and the herpes zoster vaccine has a significant effect. In terms of growth hormone business, according to the company's investor relations activity record table, the revenue of long-acting growth hormone products increased by 30% in the first three quarters of 2023, and the proportion of long-acting products in the overall income of growth hormone products further increased. It currently accounts for about 29% (about 23% for 22 years). In terms of herpes zoster vaccine, the subsidiary Baig biological live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine was approved to be put on the market in the first half of the year, and the current herpes zoster vaccine market is performing well; Q3 100g biological income achieved 684 million yuan, an increase of 60.9% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in sales revenue of live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine during the reporting period.
In the orderly progress of research and innovation of new drugs, gradually consolidate the cornerstone of long-term innovation and development. At present, Jinsai Pharmaceutical, a subsidiary of Jinsai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., has a number of indications of developing products, such as leuprorelin, long-acting follicle-stimulating hormone, VEGFR2 monoclonal antibody Jintuximab, IL-1 β monoclonal antibody Jinna monoclonal antibody, etc. at the same time, many products are in preclinical, phase 1 and phase 2 clinical stages. In addition, the US clinical program for long-acting growth hormone has been submitted, and the company is in continuous communication with relevant US regulators to actively promote clinical approval and other work.
Investment advice: we expect the company's income to grow by 16.9%, 22.1% and 20.0% respectively, and net profit to grow by 16.0%, 24.7% and 21.1% respectively from 2023 to 2025, with EPS of 11.86,14.80,17.92 yuan and PE of 11.8,9.4 and 7.8 times, respectively. We give the company 20 times PE in 2023, corresponding to a six-month target price of 237.24 yuan, maintaining a buy-An investment rating.
Risk hints: the risk of intensified competition in the growth hormone market, the risk of collection of growth hormone, the risk that the progress of clinical trials is not as expected, the risk of failure of clinical trials, and the risk of uncertain impact of the epidemic.