3Q23 performance is in line with our expectations
The company announced 3Q23 results: in the first three quarters, the company achieved an income of 278 million yuan, + 8.2% compared with the same period last year; a net loss of 31 million yuan from profit to loss compared with the same period last year; and a net loss of 38 million yuan from profit to loss compared with the same period last year.
In a single quarter, 3Q23 achieved income of 125 million yuan, + 32.7% compared with the same period last year; net profit of 1 million yuan, down 75.8% from the same period last year; net loss of 1 million yuan, and loss narrowed compared with the same period last year. 3Q23's performance improved significantly compared with the first half of the year, with a return to rapid revenue growth in a single quarter and a reversal of losses on a month-on-month basis, in line with our expectations.
Trend of development
Revenue from delivery of deferred orders returned to high growth, and profits turned into profits compared with the previous month. In the third quarter, some of the company's deferred orders were delivered smoothly in the first half of the year, and the single-quarter revenue still achieved a rapid growth of more than 30% under the relatively high base of 3Q22. Affected by the provision of equity incentive fees, the company's management expenses increased by 13 million yuan (+ 80.3% year-on-year) in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, which lowered the company's single-quarter profit performance, but achieved a month-on-month return to profit under the overall rapid revenue growth.
There are plenty of orders on hand, and there is still certainty about the high growth of the annual performance. As of the end of 3Q23, the company's inventory is 218 million yuan (year-on-year + 53%), which reflects the company's cost of project delivery. Considering the company's project delivery model for Petrochina, China Petroleum & Chemical and other strategic customers, we judge that the company's on-hand orders are still abundant. With the centralized delivery and acceptance of 4Q23 strategic customer orders, we estimate that 4Q23's revenue side is expected to achieve nearly 40% growth. Drive the annual income to achieve the performance appraisal target corresponding to the 2023 restricted stock plan Return to the mother net profit after reducing the equity incentive fee or achieve a high-speed growth of more than 30% at the same time.
Open up reserves in new business areas, and the outlook for new orders in 24 years is positive. In the past 24 years, we believe that in addition to the traditional strategic customers such as Petrochina and China Petroleum & Chemical are expected to contribute stable income to the company, the new business development is still worth looking forward to: 1) the construction of the first phase of the central enterprise treasurer has been checked and accepted one after another in 23 years. We believe that the second phase of construction projects for some customers in 24 years are expected to start one after another, and the order level is expected to be opened at the same time. 2) the company continues to research key products in the field of equipment management and intelligent oilfields, and we expect to land strategic customers such as CNOOC in 24 years; 3) the company continues to carry out domestic ERP development work in cooperation with Kunlun Digital Intelligence, and we expect to complete verification to achieve initial order expansion in 24 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
We maintain basically the same 2024 earnings forecast, outperform industry rating and target price of 30.00 yuan (based on 32 times 2023 P / E). The target price has 39.0% upside space over the current price, and the current price corresponds to the price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3 peg 16.4 times 2023 peg 2024.
Risk
The unified construction of the group is not as expected; the expansion of new customers is not as expected; and the research and development of domestic ERP is not as expected.