Core ideas:
The company publishes three quarterly reports for 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company realized income of 10.682 billion yuan (+ 10.73%), net profit of 3.612 billion yuan (+ 4.27%) and net profit of 3.616 billion yuan (+ 5.42%). In the third quarter, the company realized income of 4.514 billion yuan (+ 18.32%), net profit of 1.452 billion yuan (+ 7.98%) and net profit of 1.452 billion yuan (+ 9.05%). The performance is in line with expectations.
The steady growth of growth hormone and the increment of vaccine contribution. In the first three quarters of 2023, according to the type of business, Jinsai Pharmaceutical achieved an income of 8.118 billion yuan (+ 3.81%), a net profit of 3.524 billion yuan (+ 1.56%), an income of 2.979 billion yuan (+ 4.23%) and a net profit of 1.327 billion yuan (+ 3.75%). Growth hormone sales increased steadily Baike Bio realized income of 1.243 billion yuan (+ 43.53%), net profit of 331 million yuan (+ 56.13%), income of 683 million yuan (+ 60.71%) and net profit of 220 million yuan (+ 59.42%). Live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine and nasal influenza vaccine began to contribute to performance increment. Huakang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. realized income of 516 million yuan (+ 7.72%), net profit of 28 million yuan (+ 12.00%), income of 162 million yuan (- 6.90%) and net profit of 9 million yuan, which was the same as last year. The income of high-tech real estate is 775 million yuan (+ 32.25%), the net profit is 76 million yuan (- 13.64%), the income of Q3 is 678 million yuan (+ 84.74%), and the net profit is 71 million yuan (+ 1.43%).
The company's gross profit margin has declined and the expense rate has increased during the period. The gross profit margin of 2023Q1-3 decreased by 3.91pp to 84.91%, the rates of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses were-2.16pp,-0.59pp, + 1.26pp and-0.06pp, respectively, and the net profit margin decreased by 1.62pp to 35.42% compared with the same period last year.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the company's EPS in 2023-2025 will be 11.46RMB / share, 13.99RMB / share and 17.05RMB / share respectively, giving the company a 20-fold PE valuation in 2023 and a "buy" rating corresponding to the company's reasonable value of 229.10 yuan per share.
Risk hint. Growth hormone market expansion is not up to expectations; the progress of products under development is not as expected; increased investment in R & D may be a drag on the company's performance; increased market competition; collection and other policy risks.