Hefei Department Store (000417): 1-3Q23 minus non-net profit increased by 42.6%, focus on improving operating efficiency

中金公司 · Oct 25, 2023 07:36

1-3Q23 业绩符合我们预期

公司公布2023 年前三季度业绩：实现营业收入51.29 亿元，同比增长2.8%，归母净利润2.62 亿元，同比增长32.0%，扣非净利润1.32 亿元，同比增长42.6%。

分季度看，1Q/2Q/3Q23 营收实现19.69/16.58/15.02 亿元，同比分别+3.3%/+18.9%/-11.1%；归母净利润实现0.97/1.53/0.12 亿元，同比分别+6.3%/+1029.6%/-87.2%；扣非净利润实现0.76/0.51/0.05 亿元，同比分别+25.8%/扭亏为盈/-86.7%。

发展趋势

1、前三季度营收同比增长2.8%。其中单Q3 营收同比下滑11.1%，我们认为主因3Q22 周谷堆置业公司住宅项目集中交付，房地产业务拉高营收基数。

分业态看：1）百货业（含家电）受益于线下客流回暖，我们预计前三季度营收同比实现一定改善；2）超市业受竞争加剧及去年高基数影响，我们预计前三季度营收有所承压；3）农产品交易市场方面，公司发挥渠道优势助力乡村振兴，我们预计该业务前三季度营收同比稳增。

2、降本增效稳步推进，1-3Q23 扣非净利率同增0.7ppt。公司1-3Q23 实现毛利率27.7%，同降1.0ppt，其中3Q23 毛利率同增0.3ppt 至27.4%。期间费用方面，1-3Q23 销售费用率同降0.4ppt 至6.4%，管理+研发费用率同降0.7ppt 至14.7%，财务费用率同增0.1ppt 至0.7%。此外，报告期内产生约1.10 亿元非流动资产处置收益（我们预计主要由房屋征收安置款构成）。综合影响下，公司归母净利率同比提升1.1ppt 至5.1%，扣非净利率同比提升0.7ppt 至2.6%，盈利能力有所改善。

3、主业提质增效成果初现，关注经营转型进展。2023 年以来公司旗下各业态、门店持续优化调改升级，坚持“一店一策”、“老店新开”，并强化品牌更新力度，加大高端品牌和重点品牌引进，到店客流有所回升。此外，公司通过发力统采统配、联采联配、源头直采、厂家定制等强化供应链建设，并计划进一步降低人力、采购、物业等相关费用，我们预计多措并举下公司盈利能力有望改善。

盈利预测与估值

维持2023/24 年盈利预测3.18/2.53 亿元（2023 年考虑大额资产处置收益影响），当前股价对应2023/24 年13/16 倍P/E。维持跑赢行业评级与目标价6.15 元，对应2023/24 年15/19 倍P/E，较当前有21%上行空间。

风险

行业竞争加剧，转型不及预期，地产调控收紧

1-3Q23 performance meets our expectations

The company announced its results for the first three quarters of 2023: operating income of 5.129 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8% over the same period last year, net profit of 262 million yuan, an increase of 32.0% over the same period last year, deducting 132 million yuan of non-net profit, an increase of 42.6% over the same period last year.

On a quarterly basis, 1Q/2Q/3Q23 's revenue reached 1.502 billion yuan, which was + 3.3%, 18.9% and 11.1%, respectively, compared with the same period last year; the net profit from home was 0.97 yuan, 153,000,000 yuan, and + 6.3%, 1029.6%, 87.2%, respectively; after deducting non-net profit, it reached 0.76Universe 0.51 billion yuan, which was + 25.8% / turnround to profit /-86.7%, respectively.

Trend of development

1. Revenue in the first three quarters increased by 2.8% compared with the same period last year. Among them, single Q3 revenue fell 11.1% compared with the same period last year, and we believe that the main reason is that 3Q22 Zhougudui Real Estate Company concentrated delivery of residential projects, real estate business to increase the revenue base.

In terms of business formats: 1) the department store industry (including home appliances) benefits from the recovery of offline passenger flow, and we expect revenue to improve to a certain extent in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year; 2) the supermarket industry is affected by increased competition and a high base last year, we expect revenue to be under pressure in the first three quarters; 3) in the agricultural trading market, the company gives full play to its channel advantages to help revitalize the countryside, and we expect revenue to increase steadily in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year.

2. Steady progress has been made in reducing costs and increasing efficiency, with 1-3Q23 deducting non-net interest rates and increasing 0.7ppt. Company 1-3Q23 achieved a gross profit margin of 27.7%, with a reduction of 1.0ppt, of which 3Q23 gross profit margin increased by 0.3ppt to 27.4%. In terms of period expenses, the 1-3Q23 sales expense rate was reduced by 0.4ppt to 6.4%, the management + R & D expense rate was reduced to 14.7% by 0.7ppt, and the financial expense rate was increased by 0.1ppt to 0.7%. In addition, about $110 million was generated from the disposal of non-current assets during the reporting period (we expect it to be mainly composed of housing collection and rehousing payments). Under the combined influence, the company's parent net interest rate increased by 1.1ppt to 5.1% compared with the same period last year, and the non-net interest rate increased by 0.7ppt to 2.6% compared with the same period last year.

3. The results of quality improvement and efficiency improvement in the main industry are emerging, and pay attention to the progress of business transformation. Since 2023, the company's various formats and stores have been continuously optimized, adjusted and upgraded, adhering to the "one store, one policy" and "new opening of old stores", and strengthen brand renewal, increase the introduction of high-end brands and key brands, and the flow of customers to stores has rebounded. In addition, the company strengthens the construction of the supply chain through unified distribution, joint acquisition and distribution, source direct procurement and factory customization, and plans to further reduce manpower, procurement, property and other related costs, we expect to take more measures and improve the profitability of the company.

Profit forecast and valuation

Maintain the 24-year profit forecast of 318 RMB 253 million in 2023 (taking into account the impact of large asset disposal gains in 2023), and the current stock price corresponds to 16 times of Pmax E in 2023. Maintain an outperform industry rating and target price of 6.15 yuan, corresponding to 2023, 24, 15 and 19 times Pmax E, which is 21% more upside than the current.

Risk

Industry competition intensifies, transformation is less than expected, and real estate regulation and control is tightened.

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合肥百货(000417)：1-3Q23扣非净利同增42.6% 关注经营提效成效

Hefei Department Store (000417): 1-3Q23 minus non-net profit increased by 42.6%, focus on improving operating efficiency

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