Core ideas:
The company released the third quarterly report of 2023: single Q3 realized operating income of 249 million yuan (YOY+20.38%) and homed net profit of 47 million yuan (YOY-65.17%). The decline in homing net profit was mainly due to the completion of technology transfer of SDC2 products by 22Q3 Company, resulting in non-operating income of about 80.39 million yuan, deducting non-homing net profit of 45 million yuan (YOY+0.3%), which was flat mainly due to exchange rate changes. The exchange loss of foreign currency assets held by the company leads to a large increase in financial expenses. At the same time, increase investment in research and development.
Start a new round of motivation. According to the company's equity incentive announcement, in September 23, the company issued a new round of equity incentive plan, which covers 402 people and foreign employees. The performance evaluation target is based on 23-year operating income value of not less than 1.02 billion yuan, 23-24 years cumulative operating income value of not less than 2.264 billion yuan and 23-25 years cumulative operating income value of not less than 3.783 billion yuan, reflecting the company's confidence in future development.
Attach importance to R & D and innovation and deepen the distribution of sales at home and abroad. (1) the company's R & D expenditure in the first three quarters of 23 years was 151 million yuan (YOY+24.07%), and the expense rate was 21.31% (YOY+1.03pp).
(2) according to the data of the company's annual report for 23 years, the company has 491 research and development personnel, 24 III IVD products have been approved to market, 2 accompanying diagnostic products have been approved and included in medical insurance in Japan, and have 60 patent authorizations. in the main domestic hospital market, it has covered more than 500 hospitals in the country. Continue to expand overseas markets, the company's international business and Becton Dickinson & Co team of more than 70 people, more than 100 international dealers, covering more than 60 countries and regions.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the EPS of the company in 23-25 is 0.61 yuan per share, 0.79 yuan per share and 0.97 yuan per share respectively. Considering the company's comprehensive product layout, advantages of technology platform and sales channels, as well as the leading position in the field of diagnosis, with reference to comparable company valuation, give a 24-year valuation of 35 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value of 27.52 yuan per share, and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. Product promotion and volume is not as expected, new product approval is not as expected, overseas market expansion is not as expected, and so on.