Events:
On October 23, 2023, the company released the third quarter report of 2023, in which 2023Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 1.105 billion yuan and net profit of 182 million yuan, up 10.02% and down 10.11% respectively.
Affected by the decline in medical service revenue, 2023Q1-Q3 's homing net profit decreased by 10.11% year-on-year:
2023Q1-Q3 realized revenue and net profit of 1.105 billion yuan and 182 million yuan respectively, up 10.02% and 10.11% respectively over the same period last year. The main reasons for the decline in the company's profits compared with the same period last year are as follows: (1) the medical services business revenue has declined compared with the same period last year; (2) the company strengthened the construction of the sales force and increased the R & D investment, and the 2023Q1-Q3 sales expense rate and the R & D expense rate increased by 3.03% and 2.00% respectively compared with the same period last year.
With the leading progress in the research and development of low concentration atropine and the smooth clinical promotion of cyclosporine eye drops, the company has entered a major product harvest period:
The company has been deeply engaged in the field of ophthalmology for many years and now has a rich product pipeline in the field of ophthalmology.
At present, with the leading progress in the research and development of low concentration atropine and the smooth clinical promotion of cyclosporine eye drops, the company has gradually entered the harvest period of heavy products. Among them, the application for domestic listing permission of low-concentration atropine has been accepted, which is expected to achieve the first domestic listing; cyclosporine eye drops was included in health insurance at the end of 2021 and is currently in the stage of rapid sales.
Investment advice:
We estimate that the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 260 million yuan, 336 million yuan and 441 million yuan respectively, an increase of 22.9%, 29.2% and 31.2% respectively over the same period last year. In terms of product sales, we expect to contribute 260 million yuan in 2023 to 30 times PE for the current period, with a corresponding valuation of 7.8 billion yuan. In terms of pipeline research, according to the previously reported estimates, it is assumed that the permeability of low concentration atropine after listing is 1.5%, and the corresponding sales peak value is 4.8 billion yuan. Considering that the domestic listing license application for this variety has been accepted, its sales peak value is given 3 times the PS valuation level, and the corresponding valuation is 14.4 billion yuan. Considering the variety of the company and the valuation of the R & D pipeline, the 6-month target price is 179.03 yuan per share, and the investment rating of Buy-An is given.
Risk hints: the progress of new drug research and development is not up to expectations; the risk of drug price reduction; the sales of core products are lower than expected.