GCL Technology released the main business data of the photovoltaic materials business division, which was not audited from July 1, 2023 to September 30, 2023. The main content is: the profit of the photovoltaic materials business division was about 921 million yuan, 23Q3 granular silicon production was about 5,3607 tons, +105% compared to the same period (22Q3 granular silicon and rod-shaped silicon combined), and granulated silicon shipments were about 67607 tons (including internal sales of about 3611 tons); silicon wafer output was about 15 GW (including about 7 GW of contract silicon wafers), silicon wafers sold Approximately 15 GW (including (Foundry silicon wafers are about 6 GW). According to the voluntary disclosure announcement announced by GCL on October 16, 2022, the profit of the PV materials business segment for the first three quarters of 2022 was about 12.7 billion yuan. Calculated from this calculation, the profit for 22Q3 was about 5.79 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, the photovoltaic materials business was about -84% year-on-year.
The performance is in line with expectations, and the price of silicon is basically stable. Looking at 23Q3, silicon prices rebounded slightly after bottoming out. According to PVInfoLink data, the average price of silicon in 23Q3 was 74.4 yuan/kg, down 75% from 297.8 yuan/kg in 2022. We expect the price of silicon to stabilize in the 60-90 yuan/kg range for a long time to come. When the price falls to 60 yuan/kg, it will break through the full cost of second-tier manufacturers. First-tier manufacturers are expected to expand their market share with lower cost advantages.
The profit per ton is in line with expectations, and the cost of the Hushi project will continue to drop after it is put into operation. According to the calculation of granular silicon shipments, the company's profit per ton is about 13,600 yuan/ton. Since the public price of granulated silicon is about 5-10 yuan/kg lower than that of polycrystalline rod-shaped silicon, the median value is calculated. According to the public price calculation of 23Q3, the company's total cost is about 53.3 yuan/kg. According to the cash cost calculation of about 40 yuan/kg announced in the company's semi-annual report, it is basically in line with expectations. The cost advantage of granulated silicon is verified in terms of performance. However, at present, the company's Hohhot project is still in a state of decline. Currently, the plant is still in the capital expenditure stage. Therefore, in the future, with the full commissioning of the 24Q1 Hushi project, we expect the company's overall costs to continue to drop, giving full play to the cost advantage of granulated silicon.
Investment suggestions: The company is expected to achieve net profit of 73.03/52.05/9.064 billion yuan in 23-25, with a year-on-year ratio of -57.0%/-28.7%/+74.1%. EPS is 0.27/0.19/0.34 yuan respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of overcapacity in the industry, geopolitical risk, risk of technological progress substitution