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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX:H02)

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX:H02)

計算虎豹集團有限公司(新加坡證券交易所代碼:H02)的內在價值
Simply Wall St ·  2023/10/24 10:34

Key Insights

主要見解

  • Haw Par's estimated fair value is S$11.47 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of S$9.48 suggests Haw Par is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • The average premium for Haw Par's competitorsis currently 185%
  • 基於兩階段自由現金流轉股權,Haw Par的估計公允價值為S 11.47美元
  • S目前9.48美元的股價表明,山楂的交易價格可能接近其公允價值
  • How Par的競爭對手目前的平均溢價為185%

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX:H02) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

在本文中,我們將通過提取預期的未來現金流並將其貼現到現值來估計Haw Par Corporation Limited(SGX:H02)的內在價值。在這種情況下,我們將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。像這樣的模型可能看起來超出了外行的理解,但它們很容易被效仿。

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

不過請記住,有很多方法可以評估一家公司的價值,貼現現金流只是其中一種方法。如果你想了解更多關於貼現現金流的資訊,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中詳細閱讀這種計算背後的原理。

See our latest analysis for Haw Par

查看我們對山楂平價的最新分析

The Model

模型

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我們使用的是兩階段增長模型,也就是說,我們考慮了公司發展的兩個階段。在初期,公司可能有較高的增長率,而第二階段通常被假設為有一個穩定的增長率。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年為企業帶來的現金流。由於沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們根據公司最近報告的價值推斷出了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

貼現現金流就是這樣一種想法,即未來一美元的價值低於現在的一美元,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行貼現,以得出現值估計:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

10年自由現金流(Fcf)估計

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (SGD, Millions) S$46.6m S$61.3m S$75.1m S$87.5m S$98.0m S$106.9m S$114.3m S$120.5m S$125.8m S$130.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 44.03% Est @ 31.41% Est @ 22.58% Est @ 16.40% Est @ 12.08% Est @ 9.05% Est @ 6.93% Est @ 5.44% Est @ 4.40% Est @ 3.68%
Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0% S$44.0 S$54.6 S$63.1 S$69.3 S$73.3 S$75.4 S$76.1 S$75.7 S$74.6 S$73.0
二零二四年 2025年年 二零二六年 2027年年 2028年年 2029年年 二0三0 2031年年 2032年年 2033年
槓桿式FCF(新元,百萬) S 4660萬美元 S 6130萬美元 S 7510萬美元 S:8750萬美元 S:980萬美元 S:1.069億美元 S:1.143億美元 S:1.205億美元 S:1.258億美元 S:1.304億美元
增長率預估來源 Est@44.03% Est@31.41% Est@22.58% Est@16.40% Est@12.08% Est@9.05% EST@6.93% Est@5.44% Est@4.40% Est@3.68%
現值(新元,百萬)貼現@6.0% S 44.0億美元 S 54.6美元 S 63.1美元 S 69.3美元 S 73.3美元 S 75.4美元 S 76.1美元 S 75.7美元 S 74.6美元 S 73.0美元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$679m

(“美國東部時間”=Simply Wall St.預估的Fcf成長率)
10年期現金流現值(聚偏氟乙烯)S=6.79億美元

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.0%.

第二階段也被稱為終端價值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率2.0%的5年平均水準。我們以6.0%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = S$130m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.0%– 2.0%) = S$3.3b

終端值(電視)=FCF2033年×(1+g)?(r-g)=S$1.3億×(1+2.0%)×(6.0%-2.0%)=S$33億

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= S$3.3b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)10= S$1.9b

終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=S$33億?(1+6.0%)10=S 19億美元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is S$2.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of S$9.5, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股權價值,在本例中為S 25億美元。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數量。相對於S目前9.5美元的股價,該公司的公允價值似乎比目前的股價有17%的折讓。然而,估值是不精確的工具,更像是一臺望遠鏡--移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。一定要記住這一點。

dcf
SGX:H02 Discounted Cash Flow October 24th 2023
新交所:H02貼現現金流2023年10月24日

Important Assumptions

重要假設

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Haw Par as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

現在,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。投資的一部分是你自己對一家公司未來業績的評估,所以你自己試一試計算,檢查你自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將How Par視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了6.0%,這是基於槓桿率為0.800的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。

SWOT Analysis for Haw Par

山楂球杆的SWOT分析

Strength
強度
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • 過去一年的收益增長超過了行業.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • 債務不被視為一種風險。
  • Balance sheet summary for H02.
  • H02年度資產負債表摘要。
Weakness
軟肋
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Pharmaceuticals market.
  • 與製藥市場上前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
Opportunity
機會
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
  • 目前的股價低於我們對公允價值的估計。
  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine H02's earnings prospects.
  • 由於缺乏分析師的報道,很難確定H02 S的盈利前景。
Threat
威脅
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • 股息不包括在現金流中。
  • See H02's dividend history.
  • 參看H02‘S股利歷史。

Moving On:

下一步:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Haw Par, there are three additional elements you should explore:

雖然很重要,但理想情況下,貼現現金流計算不會是你為一家公司仔細審查的唯一分析。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。對於How Par,還有三個額外的元素你應該探索:

  1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Haw Par you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
  2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
  1. 風險:例如,我們已經發現了山楂標準桿的2個警告標誌您應該意識到,其中1個可能是嚴重的。
  2. 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
  3. 其他環保公司:關注環境,認為消費者會越來越多地購買環保產品?瀏覽我們的互動列表,這些公司正在考慮更綠色的未來,發現一些你可能沒有想到的股票!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SGX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對新交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需蒐索此處。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫.或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是暗示Wallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性.我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議.它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況.我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析.請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內.Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉.

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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