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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX:H02)

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX:H02)

计算虎豹集团有限公司(新加坡证券交易所代码:H02)的内在价值
Simply Wall St ·  2023/10/24 10:34

Key Insights

关键见解

  • Haw Par's estimated fair value is S$11.47 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of S$9.48 suggests Haw Par is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • The average premium for Haw Par's competitorsis currently 185%
  • 根据两阶段股权自由现金流计算,Haw Par的估计公允价值为11.47新元
  • 目前的股价为9.48新元,表明Haw Par的交易价格可能接近其公允价值
  • Haw Par竞争对手的平均溢价目前为185%

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX:H02) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

在本文中,我们将通过计算预期的未来现金流并将其折现为现值来估算虎豹有限公司(新加坡证券交易所代码:H02)的内在价值。在这种情况下,我们将使用折扣现金流 (DCF) 模型。像这样的模型可能看起来超出了非专业人士的理解范围,但它们很容易理解。

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

但请记住,估算公司价值的方法有很多,而差价合约只是一种方法。如果您想了解有关折扣现金流的更多信息,可以在Simply Wall St分析模型中详细了解此计算背后的理由。

See our latest analysis for Haw Par

查看我们对 Haw Par 的最新分析

The Model

该模型

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,这只是意味着我们考虑了公司增长的两个阶段。在初始阶段,公司的增长率可能更高,而第二阶段通常被认为具有稳定的增长率。在第一阶段,我们需要估算未来十年的业务现金流。鉴于我们没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们从公司上次公布的价值中推断了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

差价合约完全是关于未来一美元的价值低于今天一美元的想法,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行折现才能得出现值估计:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (SGD, Millions) S$46.6m S$61.3m S$75.1m S$87.5m S$98.0m S$106.9m S$114.3m S$120.5m S$125.8m S$130.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 44.03% Est @ 31.41% Est @ 22.58% Est @ 16.40% Est @ 12.08% Est @ 9.05% Est @ 6.93% Est @ 5.44% Est @ 4.40% Est @ 3.68%
Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0% S$44.0 S$54.6 S$63.1 S$69.3 S$73.3 S$75.4 S$76.1 S$75.7 S$74.6 S$73.0
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF(新加坡元,百万) 4,660 万新元 6,130 万新元 7,510 万新元 8,750 万新元 9800 万新元 1.069 亿新元 1.143 亿新元 1.20亿新元 1.258 亿新元 1.304 亿新元
增长率估算来源 美国东部标准时间 @ 44.03% 美国东部时间 @ 31.41% 美国东部标准时间 @ 22.58% Est @ 16.40% 美国东部标准时间 @ 12.08% 美国东部时间 @ 9.05% Est @ 6.93% Est @ 5.44% Est @ 4.40% Est @ 3.68%
现值(新加坡元,百万元)折扣 @ 6.0% 44.0 新元 54.6 新元 63.1 新元 69.3 新元 73.3 新元 75.4 新元 76.1 新元 75.7 新元 74.6 新元 73.0 新元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$679m

(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = 6.79 亿新元

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.0%.

第二阶段也称为终端价值,这是第一阶段之后的业务现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期国债收益率的5年平均值2.0%。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,权益成本为6.0%。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = S$130m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.0%– 2.0%) = S$3.3b

终端价值 (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ¼ (r — g) = 1.30亿新元× (1 + 2.0%) ¼ (6.0% — 2.0%) = 3.3亿新元

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= S$3.3b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)10= S$1.9b

终端价值的现值 (PVTV)= 电视/ (1 + r)10= s$3.3b¼ (1 + 6.0%)10= 19亿新元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is S$2.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of S$9.5, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

总价值是未来十年的现金流之和加上贴现的最终价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为25亿新元。最后一步是将股票价值除以已发行股票数量。相对于目前的9.5新元股价,该公司看上去公允价值差不多,比目前的股价折扣了17%。但是,估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——移动几度然后最终进入另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。

dcf
SGX:H02 Discounted Cash Flow October 24th 2023
新加坡证券交易所股票代码:H02 贴现现金流 2023 年 10 月 24 日

Important Assumptions

重要假设

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Haw Par as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

现在,贴现现金流的最重要输入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是自己对公司未来业绩的评估,因此请自己尝试计算并检查自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性或公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在业绩。鉴于我们将Haw Par视为潜在股东,因此将股权成本用作贴现率,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了6.0%,这是基于0.800的杠杆贝塔值。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比的波动率的指标。我们的beta值来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,其限制在0.8至2.0之间,这对于稳定的业务来说是一个合理的区间。

SWOT Analysis for Haw Par

Haw Par 的 SWOT 分析

Strength
力量
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • 过去一年的收益增长超过了该行业。
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • 债务不被视为风险。
  • Balance sheet summary for H02.
  • H02 的资产负债表摘要。
Weakness
弱点
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Pharmaceuticals market.
  • 与制药市场前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
Opportunity
机会
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
  • 目前的股价低于我们对公允价值的估计。
  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine H02's earnings prospects.
  • 由于缺乏分析师的报道,很难确定H02的盈利前景。
Threat
威胁
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • 现金流不涵盖股息。
  • See H02's dividend history.
  • 查看H02的股息历史。

Moving On:

继续前进:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Haw Par, there are three additional elements you should explore:

尽管很重要,但理想情况下,差价合约计算不会是你为公司仔细研究的唯一分析内容。DCF模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,DCF模型的最佳用途是检验某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股权成本或无风险利率急剧变化,那么产出可能会大不相同。对于 Haw Par 来说,你还应该探索另外三个元素:

  1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Haw Par you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
  2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
  1. 风险: 举个例子,我们发现了 Haw Par 有 2 个警告标志 你应该知道,其中一个可能很严重。
  2. 其他稳健的业务: 低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过往表现是强劲业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们的互动式具有坚实商业基础的股票清单,看看是否还有其他公司你可能没有考虑过!
  3. 其他环保公司: 担心环境并认为消费者会越来越多地购买环保产品?浏览我们正在考虑更绿色未来的公司互动列表,发现一些你可能没有想到的股票!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SGX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对新加坡交易所的每只股票进行折扣现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算方法,请在此处搜索。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。 我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街在上述任何股票中都没有头寸。

译文内容由第三方软件翻译。


以上内容仅用作资讯或教育之目的,不构成与富途相关的任何投资建议。富途竭力但不能保证上述全部内容的真实性、准确性和原创性。
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