According to the three-quarter report of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 3.072 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, an increase of 25.09% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 492 million yuan, down 16.66% from the same period last year. It deducted 490 million yuan from non-parent net profit, down 20.06% from the same period last year. Of this total, the operating income in the third quarter was 1.192 billion yuan, an increase of 37.13% over the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was 218 million yuan, down 0.48% from the same period last year. The non-return net profit was 216 million yuan, down 10.52% from the same period last year.
The phosphating scene demeanor margin improved, the third quarter performance is in line with expectations. The phosphating boom declined slightly in the third quarter, which was a drag on the company's performance. According to Baichuan, in the third quarter, the average tax price of calcium dihydrogen phosphate and industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate wet southwest and Hubei 30% phosphate ore ship plate was 3291 (YoY-27% YoY QoQ-7%), 5092 (YoY-23% qoQ-5%), 895 yuan per ton (YoY-11% qoQ-13%). At present, the prices of all the above products have continued to rebound after they hit bottom in July, with phosphate rock prices rising 14.12% from their July lows. With the marginal improvement in the demeanor of the phosphating scene, it is expected that the follow-up performance will be supported.
The project continues to advance, and the sales volume of phosphoric acid in domestic trade increases steadily. Since 2022, the company has successively built projects such as "Fuquan New mineralization Integrated phosphorus Resources intensive and Deep processing Project-1.5 million t / a mineral processing equipment and supporting facilities for comprehensive utilization of low and medium grade phosphate ores", "200,000 t / a half-water-dihydrate wet process phosphoric acid and fine deep processing project" front-end wet process phosphoric acid production line and "100000 t / a ferric phosphate project" and other projects, improving the layout of the industrial chain. In addition, the company plans to build projects such as 120,000 tons / year of food-grade phosphoric acid, 100,000 tons / year of food-grade purified phosphoric acid, and 2.5 million tons / year of Jigongling Phosphate Mine, which will further strengthen the company's phosphoric acid production capacity and improve product layout. In terms of product sales, in September, Chuanheng phosphoric acid "domestic trade water and land transport" successfully set sail, Chuanheng phosphoric acid monthly sales exceeded 10,000 tons for the first time, through continuous and active docking of end customers, the company achieved sustained growth in domestic trade phosphoric acid sales.
Maintain earnings forecasts and maintain "overweight" ratings. The company is the leader of phosphorus chemical subdivision, and the phosphate ore reserve is rich. With the growth of the project, it is expected that the company will achieve operating income of 37.36,49.99,6.806 billion yuan and return net profit of 6.74,8.57,1.219 billion yuan in 23-25 years, corresponding to 12X/10X/7X for PE, maintaining the "holding increase" rating.
Risk hint: the price of phosphating products is downward, and the project schedule is not as expected.