2023Q3 revenue and return net profit increased significantly compared with the previous month. The proposed repurchase of 200-400 million yuan shows that the company released the third quarter report of 2023, with revenue of 6.434 billion yuan in the first three quarters,-38.68% compared with the same period last year; net profit of return to the mother was 1.019 billion yuan,-70.27% compared with the same period last year; corresponding to Q3 revenue of 2.344 billion yuan, year-on-year-22.24%, month-on-month + 38.19% The net profit of returning to the mother was 403 million yuan, which was-49.23% compared with the same period last year. The revenue of Q3 and the net profit of returning to the mother increased significantly compared with the same period last year. We maintain the profit forecast and estimate that the return net profit from 2023 to 2025 is 15.10,13.46 and 1.788 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.17,0.15,0.20 yuan per share, and the current stock price corresponds to 13.6,15.2 and 11.5 times PE from 2023 to 2025. We believe that the company plans to promote Guang'an Bimeida and Indonesia projects to promote high-quality development, while announcing that it intends to buy back 200-400 million yuan to demonstrate medium-and long-term development confidence and maintain the "buy" rating.
Q3 the increase in volume and price of most products contributed to the growth of revenue and homing net profit compared with the previous month, and the profitability increased from January to September 2023. The sales volume of the company's three major businesses, namely, alkali chemical products, pesticides and intermediates, by-products, nutrients and intermediates, and by-products, was 145.9pm, 92m, 700,000 tons, and revenue was 254amp, 1.082.9 billion yuan. The average price is 1743.94Universe 11702.82Universe 4135.49 yuan / ton (year-on-year-6.25% Universe 60.62% Universe 13.33%). We estimate that the sales volume of 2023Q3's three types of business is 55.0 Universe 41,000,000 tons (month-on-month comparison + 74.8% pick-up 94.6% pick-up 13.3%), revenue 8.3 percent-46.6 billion yuan (month-on-month ratio + 44.8% pick "287.9% pick" 58.8%), and average price 1514.29RMB 11025.29pm 4771.25 yuan / ton (month-on-month ratio-17.2% lead "99.4% bank" 40.1%) The volume and price of diglyphosate, glyphosate, methionine and the growth of sales volume of joint alkali products contributed to the significant increase in Q3 revenue and net profit from the previous month. In terms of profitability, the company's sales gross profit margin and net profit margin in the first three quarters of 2023 were 24.06% and 15.76% respectively, of which Q3 sales gross profit margin and net profit margin were 24.84% and 17.53% respectively, and + 4.75 and + 4.46pcts respectively.
Steadily promote the Guang'an Bimeta project and the Indonesia project, and plan to buy back 200-400 million yuan to demonstrate confidence in medium-and long-term development. In terms of the construction project, the Guang'an Bimeda project with an annual output of 500000 tons of double glyphosate has completed the project filing and the preparation of the feasibility study report. and obtained the environmental assessment, energy assessment, safety assessment and other administrative licenses, the company has now begun to carry out detailed design of the project. Indonesia's annual production of 200000 tons of glyphosate and 600000 tons of combined alkali projects are applying for foreign investment permits from the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission. At the same time, the company announced that based on its confidence in the company's development prospects, it intends to buy back 200-400 million yuan of shares by centralized bidding for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, with a repurchase price of no more than 3.52 yuan per share.
Risk tips: large fluctuations in product and raw material prices, less than expected project progress, safety and environmental protection risks, etc.