Peace viewpoint:
Offshore fan: the competitive advantage is stable and the forward-looking layout wins the future. Offshore wind power is growing prominently, and the compound growth rate of domestic offshore wind power installation is expected to exceed 50% from 2023 to 2025. The company has formed an obvious competitive advantage in the field of offshore wind turbines. Since 2022, in the domestic offshore wind projects that have disclosed the winning bid of offshore wind turbines, the company has a market share of about 37%, obviously ahead of its main competitors. Based on the core competitiveness such as location advantage and semi-direct drive technology advantage, the company is expected to maintain its current competitive advantage. Compared with overseas competitors, domestic offshore wind turbine enterprises have more and more prominent cost advantages. the company has obtained offshore wind turbine orders in Italy, Japan, Vietnam, the United Kingdom, South Korea and other markets, while actively laying out markets such as Brazil and the Philippines. in the future, the company is expected to achieve greater breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine exports.
New energy power plant business: sustainable, profit contribution is expected to rise to a higher level. In recent years, the head wind turbine enterprise has become one of the mainstream wind farm operators, and the important supporting logic behind it is to exchange investment for resources. the company has strong competitiveness in obtaining front-end project resources by relying on strong industrial investment ability, active marketing strategy and innovative operation mode. Considering that the new installed scale of domestic wind power will continue to grow, due to the continued improvement of the company's competitiveness in obtaining projects, the company's wind farm scale will also continue to grow. As of the first half of 2023, the company holds the operating new energy power station scale 1.67GW, and another 4.02GW is under construction. The company adopts the rolling development model, sells part of the power plant every year and quickly recovers the funds. It is expected that the scale of profit contribution of the new energy power plant business is expected to increase significantly in the future.
The "active" culture is expected to drive the company's long-term growth. From the establishment of Mingyang Wind Power, the predecessor of the company in 2006, to the growth of the company into a domestic offshore wind turbine leader and mainstream new energy power plant development and operation enterprise, the company has shown a high degree of subjective initiative and enterprising spirit in pursuit of excellence. accumulated into a dynamic corporate culture. We believe that the "active" culture is not only the cornerstone of the company's development and growth in the past, but also the core driving force and important guarantee of long-term growth in the future. At present, the company actively promotes new businesses such as heterojunction and perovskite, and has formed gigawatt heterojunction battery capacity. The conversion efficiency of trans-structure perovskite solar cells prepared on 50*50mm size substrate is 24.12%. Considering the innovative spirit, tenacity and flexibility, and being good at accumulating and cultivating talents extended by the "dynamic" culture, the company's new business is worth looking forward to and is expected to build a new growth curve in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice. To maintain the company's profit forecast, the estimated return net profit from 2023 to 2025 is 40.57,55.35 and 7.313 billion yuan, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 8.2,6.0,4.5 times respectively. Consider the company's core competitiveness and long-term growth, maintain the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk hint. Domestic offshore wind power development is affected by military, sea and other aspects, and there is a risk that the phased demand is lower than expected; the deterioration of offshore wind turbine competition leads to the risk that the company's market share and profitability are lower than expected; the risk of intensified overseas trade protection and the company's export business is lower than expected; the company's heterojunction, perovskite and other emerging business development is not as expected risk.