Events:
On October 16, 2023, the company received a letter from the actual controller, China Resources Co., Ltd., based on its confidence in the company's future development and recognition of the company's long-term investment value, it plans to increase its shares within 12 months from the date of disclosure of this announcement, through the means permitted by the trading system of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the company's controlling shareholder, China Resources Group (Microelectronics) Co., Ltd., or other wholly-owned subsidiaries of China Resources. The total amount of increase shall not be less than 100 million yuan.
Domestic power semiconductor leading enterprise
According to the statistics of Omdia in April 2023, the company ranks first in China's power semiconductor enterprises and the first in China's MOSFET scale. The company's third generation wide band gap semiconductors silicon carbide and gallium nitride are both on a large scale, and the sales revenue of silicon carbide and gallium nitride products increased by about 3.6 times in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year. In terms of downstream applications, silicon carbide products are mainly used in automotive electronics, charging piles, industrial power supplies, photovoltaic, energy storage and so on. SiC diodes, SiC MOSFET, SiC module products have entered the automotive electronic applications.
During the construction of the high-end mask project, Security MCU prepares to batch supply company to achieve year-on-year growth in mask business sales in the first half of the year, with a production capacity of 3000 pieces per month. The mask business has served the major domestic FAB lines and many IC design companies. The high-end mask project is already under construction with a planned production capacity of 1000 pieces per month and is expected to provide mask foundry services with line widths of 40nm and above in 2024. The company's security MCU products mainly apply the Internet of things, industrial Internet, automotive electronics and other intelligent terminals, has successfully completed the chip quality assessment, has passed the application verification of key customers, and is ready for batch supply.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 107.27 billion yuan (121.33 billion yuan in 23-24), with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.63% 13.10% and 15.54%, respectively, and the net profit of returning home will be 20.51 billion 25.30 billion yuan (34.97 billion in 23-24 years), with a year-on-year growth rate of-21.63% 23.36% and 17.89%, respectively. In 3 years, the CAGR is 4.46% and the PE is 1.55 and 1.92 respectively, and the corresponding EPS is twice as much as that in 33-27-23. In view of the company's leading position in domestic power semiconductors, new products from various production lines are expected to contribute new increments, which should be paid close attention to.
Risk hints: risks such as macroeconomic fluctuations, lower-than-expected capacity construction, intensified competition in the industry, and so on.