Events:
On October 20, the company released its third quarterly report of 2023. In the first three quarters of 23, the company realized revenue of 592 million yuan, up 29% over the same period last year; net profit of 79 million yuan, up 95%; and net profit of 81 million yuan, up 125% over the same period last year. Basic earnings per share is 0.68 yuan.
Refrigerator export demand increased significantly, performance increased month-on-month
In a single quarter, Q3 achieved revenue of 238 million yuan, an increase of 54% over the same period last year, and net profit of 38 million yuan, an increase of 106% over the same period last year and 27% month-on-month growth. Q3 performance achieved significant growth compared with the same month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in production and sales of vacuum insulation plates and the improvement of profitability brought about by relatively low raw material prices. With the launch of a series of domestic appliance subsidy promotion activities, the release of refrigerator purchase demand has led to an increase in the company's demand for vacuum insulation panels. According to Industry online, domestic sales of refrigerators in August-September increased by 7.6% and 4.5% respectively compared with the same period last year; export demand is also strong, with export sales up 35%, 49% and 53% respectively from July to September compared with the same period last year.
At the same time, the continued weakness in the prices of some raw materials and natural gas has led to an increase in the company's profitability. According to Jinliangchuang data, the average arrival price of 2023Q3 Fujian LNG is 4390 yuan / ton, which has decreased by 40% / month, respectively. The comprehensive gross profit margin of Q3 has increased to 35.92% from the previous month.
Looking to the future, although the fourth quarter is the off-season for traditional refrigerator sales, the production schedule is still strong this year. Industry online data show that refrigerator internal / external sales increased by 2% and 53% year-on-year in October, and the company's performance is expected to be strong in the off-season.
Vacuum glass to create the second growth curve
Vacuum glass has excellent thermal insulation, anti-frosting, noise isolation, long service life and other advantages, but there are some problems in the industry, such as extensive production, low automation, high cost and poor product consistency.
The company innovates its production technology, builds a high-efficiency continuous vacuum glass packaging line, aims at the pain points of the industry, reduces costs, increases efficiency and improves quality, and is expected to open more than 10 billion superfreezer application markets. With the further improvement of technology and cost reduction in the future, optimistically, it is expected to pry open nearly 70 billion of the market space of building energy-saving application scenarios by 2030.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company's income in 2023-25 will be 100 million yuan respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 41%, 32%, 36%, 1.3 billion, 20, 000, 100, 000, 100, 100, 100, 100, 20, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 20, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 000, 100, 100, 100, 000, 100, 100, 100, 000, 100, 100, 100, 000, 100, 100, 000, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, Taking into account the company's vacuum insulation board business prospects, vacuum glass second curve space is larger, and with reference to the comparable company valuation, we maintain the company's 24-year PE of 25 times, corresponding to the target price of 42.25 yuan, maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: the risk that the project under construction / proposed is less than expected, the risk of rising prices of major raw materials and energy, the risk of foreign exchange rate fluctuation, and the risk of deviation in industry space measurement.