Event: the company released three quarterly reports, 1) 23 years Q1-3: operating income 1.02 billion yuan, year-on-year + 37%, mother net profit 64 million yuan, year-on-year + 78%, corresponding to mother net interest rate 6.2%, year-on-year + 1.4ppdint 2) 23Q3: operating income 400 million yuan, year-on-year + 39%, month-on-month + 17%, return to mother 32 million yuan, year-on-year + 2.7times, month-on-month ratio + 55% Corresponding to the home net interest rate of 7.9%, year-on-year + 4.8pp, month-on-month + 1.9pp.
23Q3's profit margin continues to rise, and the profit inflection point is confirmed again. The company has previously announced a pre-increase in Q3 performance. The key information of the company's detailed financial report is as follows:
1) 23Q3 revenue slightly exceeded expectations: Q3 since BYD seat skeleton projects have increased one after another, and the overall revenue performance has slightly exceeded expectations. Q4 question M7 acceleration, the company alone for the seat skeleton, ASP is higher, Q4 revenue end is expected to continue strong growth driven by core customers.
2) 23Q3 profit margin continues to improve: Q3 gross profit margin 18.1%, year-on-year + 4.2pp, month-on-month + 2.2pp, homing net profit rate 7.9%, year-on-year + 4.8pp, month-on-month + 1.9pp, profit margin has returned to the highest level in the past two years. Be optimistic about the certainty of the company's high performance and poor expectations of product development.
As the target of the outstanding growth in the parts plate in the next two years, we are optimistic about the persistence and surprise of the company's high growth. 1) car seat frame: tens of billions of fixed points in hand have been realized one after another, and the core customers revolve around BYD and ask for high visibility. 2) other products such as precision parts: including railway-related projects (railway special containers / high-speed rail seats), BYD door lock project, M9 safety system and chassis height sensor components, basically significantly increased next year. The follow-up exceeding expectations of new business development is worth looking forward to.
Investment advice: the development of the company has both predictable high growth and surpassing surprises. Considering the independent leading position of the company's car seat framework and being at the starting point of a new growth stage, it is expected to develop more new products and higher-than-expected new increments will increase performance growth expectations and catalytic valuation. We expect the company's 2023-2025 return net profit to be 100 million, 210 million, 320 million yuan (the previous value is 120 million, 200 million, 310 million yuan), with a growth rate of + 119%, + 109% and + 51%. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: macroeconomic fluctuations, rising prices of raw materials, competition among new energy car companies to increase sales less than expected, the speed of new product promotion is lower than expected, and the risk of new customer development is not as expected.