Revenue grew steadily in the third quarter, and net profit from home increased by 77% compared with the same period last year. According to the company's three-quarter report in 2023, 2023Q1-Q3 achieved 3.64 billion yuan in revenue, + 1.6% year-on-year, 280 million yuan in net profit, + 26.2% in the same period last year, and 240 million yuan in non-return net profit,-0.1% in the same period last year. Among them, 2023Q3 realized income of 1.19 billion yuan, + 4.1% year-on-year; net profit of 110 million yuan, + 76.5%; and non-return net profit of 80 million yuan,-5.9% of the same period last year.
It is expected that the main lighting industry will maintain stability, and the vehicle business will contribute to the increase in revenue. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in US dollars, the export volume of China's lamps, lighting fixtures and parts industry is-2.5%, 2.6%, 9.9%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The growth rate of lighting exports weakened in the third quarter, benefiting from the trend of industry concentration, the company's export performance is expected to outperform the industry. In terms of vehicle business, LDM is weakened by the adverse impact of chip delivery this year, the number of deliveries has increased steadily, and BMS fixed-point projects are also gradually in mass production. If it is assumed that the lighting business income of Q3 company is basically flat, the vehicle business is expected to still achieve double-digit growth.
Q3 gross profit margin continued to improve, and changes in the fair value of forward foreign exchange contracts thickened performance. Q3 company gross profit margin year-on-year + 3.0pct to 18.5%, the increase in gross profit margin may be mainly related to the good cost of raw materials and cost reduction and efficiency. The Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 3.6%, 3.8%, 3.4%, 3.4%, 0.1%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The increase in the financial expense rate is mainly due to the decrease in exchange earnings compared with the same period last year. The company's parent net interest rate increased from + 4.0pct to 9.6% compared with the same period last year, of which the fair value of Q3 forward foreign exchange contracts increased by 52 million over the same period last year. At the same time, government subsidies also increased by 16 million over the same period last year. If excluding the impact of non-operating profit and loss, Q3 deducts the non-parent net interest rate from-0.7pct to 6.8% year-on-year, and the overall profitability is still robust.
General Lighting is facing a low base and is looking forward to accelerating the vehicle business. Under the US dollar caliber, the export volume of 2022Q4 China's lighting industry is-15.3% compared with the same period last year, which is the largest decline in a single quarter since 2020Q2. In the same period, the company's revenue is-31.7% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the main industry of Q4 lighting will usher in restorative growth at a low base. In the field of vehicle business, the company's existing designated projects accumulate more than 4 billion yuan, with a project cycle of 5-10 years, and continue to obtain the fixed point of the head Tier1 enterprise. 2023H1 added headlight controllers, taillight luminous panels and BMS fixed-point projects for customers such as Marelli and Wanxiang A123, and won the fixed point of Huazhong Marelli headlight ECU in August, and the vehicle business is expected to usher in high-speed growth.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry; car customer expansion is not as expected; industry demand recovery is not as expected.
Investment advice: maintain profit forecasts and maintain "overweight" ratings.
The company's general lighting main business is expected to usher in restorative growth, the vehicle business is progressing smoothly, while the cost reduction effect is gradually emerging, and the profit forecast is maintained. The company's 2023-2025 net profit is expected to be 3.8cm 4.5 / 520 million, with a growth rate of + 12%, 18% and 15%, corresponding to PE=17/14/12x, maintaining the "overweight" rating.