Event: the company released its Triple report for 2023. The company's 23Q1~Q3 realized revenue of 18.788 billion yuan, an increase of 114.83%, and a net profit of 1.403 billion yuan, an increase of 68.98%. Corresponding to 23Q3's single-quarter revenue of 6.659 billion yuan, an increase of 49.68%, and a single-quarter net profit of 785 million yuan, an increase of 64.61%. Prior to this, the company has issued a pre-increase announcement for the first three quarters, and the company's performance is in the range of performance forecast.

The sales of the equipment business are solid, and the rebound in silicon wafer prices leads to profit growth.

1) equipment category: customer demand for energy saving and emission reduction drives the company's sales of energy-saving and water-saving equipment to increase steadily, and orders for new energy equipment such as polysilicon reduction furnace and its pry blocks continue to be delivered. 2023H1's energy-saving and water-saving income is 1.497 billion yuan, of which air cooling system is up 55.88%; new energy equipment revenue is 1.638 billion yuan, up 65.02%, and its market share is more than 65%. It is estimated that 23Q3's equipment business will make a profit of about 200 million yuan.

2) Silicon wafers: the price of single crystal silicon wafers has warmed up, the cost has been optimized, and the profit of the wafer business has increased. We estimate that the company's Q3 single crystal silicon shipments are about 10GW, and the net profit per watt is about 6%. According to the InfoLinkConsulting official account on September 20 photovoltaic industry chain quotation: the price of silicon wafer continues to rise, the average price of polysilicon densifier rebounded to 85 yuan / kg,P 182mm wafer rebounded to 3.35 yuan / wafer, 210mm wafer rebounded to 4.20 yuan / wafer. The battery price remained high, and the average price per unit W of 182mm P / N battery was 0.69 / 0.73 yuan. We believe that the price of silicon will pick up in the short term or continue to rise, and the price of silicon will pick up and the company's cost optimization will lead to an increase in the profitability of the company's wafer business.

The rebound in silicon wafer prices led to profitability repair. 1) Gross profit margin: the company's 23Q3 gross profit margin is 20.44%, compared with the same period last year-0.04pct/ + 7.43pct, mainly due to the recovery of silicon wafer prices. 2) rate side:

The 23Q3 period rate is 4.8%, year-on-year-2.2pct, except for the financial rate, the other three rates are lower than the same period last year. 3) net profit end: 23Q3 net interest rate 12.31%, year-on-year + 0.92pct/ chain + 10.07pct.

Looking forward to 2023:

1) Energy saving and water saving: the company maintains a leading position in the market share of thermal power air cooling and coal chemical air cooling, with full orders on hand; 2) New energy equipment: green electricity hydrogen production system workshop has been put into operation, orders for fully immersed liquid cooled heat exchanger module (CDM) have been released one after another, heat pipe products are shipped steadily, and revenue contribution and performance increment are expected. The company achieved the delivery of the first electrolytic cell equipment in September 2022, which can be widely used in petrochemical, coal chemical, synthetic ammonia and other fields. at present, the electrolytic cell business is advancing smoothly; 3) Silicon wafers: downstream demand for N-type silicon wafers and large-size silicon wafers is increasing, with the gradual stabilization of silicon material prices, the company's N-type silicon wafer share increases, non-silicon costs continue to reduce, and single-watt profits are expected to be improved.

Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's 2023-2025 net profit from homing to the parent is 20.83 / 3.98 billion yuan, an increase of 117.9%, 46.8%, 30.1%, corresponding to 2023, 2024, 2025E, PE, valued at 9.1, 6.2, and 4.7 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk tips: rising raw material prices, lower-than-expected photovoltaic and energy storage demand, and the risk of policy change.