3Q23's home net profit is-59% compared with the same period last year, maintaining the profit forecast
Construction Investment Energy released three quarterly reports, 1-3Q23 achieved revenue of 13.269 billion yuan (year-on-year-4.1%), home net profit of 227 million yuan (year-on-year-21%), deduction of non-net profit of 98.94 million yuan (year-on-year-55%). Of these, 3Q23 realized revenue of 4.33 billion yuan (year-on-year-13%, month-on-month + 21%) and return to its mother net profit of 142 million yuan (year-on-year-59%, month-on-month-37%). Maintaining the profit forecast, we expect the company's 23-25 net return profit to be 3.21 million yuan, 4.79 million yuan, and BPS 5.59 million yuan, 5.77 million yuan. With reference to the comparable 23-year PB average of 1.1x (Wind consensus expectation), the company is given a 23-year 1.1x target PB with a target price of 6.15yuan (the previous value is based on 1.2x 23e PB), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The growth of 3Q23 electricity generation is accelerated, and the gross profit margin is flat compared with the previous month.
With the recovery of power demand in Hebei Province, the company's 1-3Q23 power generation capacity is + 5% year-on-year, of which 3Q23 is + 9% year-on-year, which is better than 2Q23 (+ 8%) and 1Q23 (- 2%). The average online settlement price of the company's 1-3Q23 is-7% compared with the same period last year. We estimate that the 3Q23 price is-20% year-on-year and + 1% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the high base effect in the same period last year (high electricity price caused by inter-provincial power transactions in July-August 22), and the 3Q23 price is at a normal level. The company's 3Q23 gross profit margin is year-on-year-8pct, month-on-month flat, mainly affected by the decline in electricity prices and coal prices.
Increase the development of new energy, the rapid growth of carbon assets business
In the first half of 2023, the company stepped up new energy development efforts and adopted the collaborative development path of "coal power + new energy" and "heat + new energy". By the end of 1H23, the installed capacity of new energy has been put into production of 310000 kilowatts, with an additional record capacity of 720000 kilowatts, and the capacity of projects under construction and projects to be started has increased to 1.77 million kilowatts. Sun, a holding company, continuously improves the functions of carbon certification and financial services platform, continues to carry out carbon quota trading, international emission reduction project development and trading and carbon assets financial business, and promotes the company's carbon emission reduction work. In the first half of 2023, the company made a net income of 51.91 million yuan from carbon quota trading.
Slightly lower the target price with reference to the comparable valuation to maintain the overweight rating
The fundamentals of the coal and power industry have bottomed out and rebounded, the company's 23-year performance is expected to improve, 23-25 year performance flexibility is sufficient. Comparable company's 23-year average PB of 1.1x (Wind consensus expectations), the company's current stock price corresponds to 23 years of 0.98xPB. Give the company a 23-year 1.1xPB with a target price of 6.15 yuan per share. Maintain the overweight rating.
Risk tips: the increase in coal prices is higher than expected, the number of hours of utilization is declining, and the progress of projects under construction is not as expected.