Core ideas:
The company released three quarterly reports for 23 years, and Q3 performance continued to improve month-on-month. In the first three quarters of 23 years, the company achieved revenue of 592 million yuan, + 28.75% compared with the same period last year, realized net profit of 79.2 million yuan, + 95.26%, and deducted non-return net profit of 80.67 million yuan, + 125.08% compared with the same period last year. In a single quarter, 23Q3 achieved revenue of 238 million yuan, year-on-year + 54.29%, month-on-month + 18.19%, net profit of 37.67 million yuan, + 105.54%, month-on-month + 24.90%, and non-return net profit of 36.25 million yuan, + 130.08% and + 8.16%. In terms of profitability, 23Q3's overall gross profit margin is 35.92%, year-on-year + 8.42pct, month-on-month + 2.14pct; overall net profit margin is 15.84%, year-on-year + 3.95pct, month-on-month + 0.85pct.
Vacuum insulation board demand continues to improve, the company continues to innovate in technology, pay close attention to production expansion to alleviate capacity bottlenecks. With the improvement of energy efficiency standards and the consumption trend of ultra-thin refrigerators, the demand for vacuum insulation plates continues to improve, and the company's orders are full. According to the China News, the company actively carries out the research and development of new processes, such as automation and transformation of the post-production process of vacuum insulation board, core material air flow netting forming process, four-sided sealing VIP, etc., in order to improve VIP production efficiency and product performance, and continue to lead the industry. The company's convertible bond prospectus shows that the company plans to raise 442 million yuan to invest 5 million square meters of vacuum insulation board production capacity in Hefei. With the new capacity gradually put into production, the company's capacity bottleneck is expected to be alleviated.
The prospect of vacuum glass industry is broad, and the company is active in layout. Vacuum glass has a large demand space in home appliances, energy-saving buildings, public transport and other fields. The company's convertible bond prospectus shows that the company has completed the verification of the vacuum glass production process, and the second growth pole is expected to open.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 23-25 are 1.02 yuan, 1.94 yuan and 2.81 yuan respectively, and the current share price is 29 times, 15 times and 10 times respectively. Taking into account the company's business structure and performance growth, with reference to the comparable company valuation, give the company's 24-year performance 20 times PE valuation, corresponding to the company's fair value of 38.74 yuan / share, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint. Vacuum insulation plate downstream demand is not up to expectations; exchange rate fluctuations; raw materials fluctuations; vacuum glass promotion is lower than expected; major safety, environmental protection accidents.