上海莱士浆量超千吨，盈利能力国内领先。公司自2014 年起通过多起并购拓展浆站资源，现有浆站42 家，2022 年采浆量超过1400 吨，采浆规模居行业第一梯队。公司获得了基立福人血白蛋白产品的销售代理权，2022 年公司代理白蛋白实现收入27 亿元，白蛋白代理业务有利于公司提升产业话语权，从而进一步带动其他自产产品的销售。公司现有人血白蛋白、静注人免疫球蛋白等共11 个品种。其中上海莱士本部囊括三大凝血因子类产品。受益于丰富的产品品种及其市场份额优势，公司盈利能力行业领先。我们估计2022 年公司吨浆净利（投浆）约100 万元/吨。Recommended logic: 1) the demand of China's blood products industry will recover in 2023. With the major decisive victory in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation in China, the routine diagnosis and treatment activities in China have been revived. According to the data of the Health Commission, 380 million people were diagnosed and treated in Chinese hospitals in March 2023, an increase of 11.5% over the same period last year. It is expected that the recovery of diagnosis and treatment will lead to the rapid growth of demand for blood products in 2023. 2) the pulp volume of Shanghai Royce is more than one thousand tons, and its profitability is the leading in China. The company has 42 pulp stations and more than 1400 tons of pulp in 2022, acting Jilifu importer Bai further enhances the company's income and industrial status, and the company leads the domestic market share of coagulation factor products. we estimate that the company's self-operated blood products business tonnage pulp net profit (pulp) is about 1 million yuan / ton in 2022. 3) launch the employee stock ownership plan to arouse employees' enthusiasm. The employee stock ownership plan takes 2023 to 2025 as the performance evaluation year, and the assessment target is not less than 74,160 and 25 billion yuan respectively for the cumulative operating income of 2023, 2023-2024 and 2023-2025.
The demand for blood products is expected to recover after the epidemic. Affected by the epidemic situation, the number of patients diagnosed and treated in hospitals in China decreased in 2022.
In 2022, the average number of people diagnosed and treated by hospitals in China was 330 million per month, down 5.2% from the same period last year. With the major decisive victory in the prevention and control of the epidemic in 2023, the recovery of routine diagnosis and treatment activities, the demand for blood products is growing rapidly. In March 2023, 380 million people were diagnosed and treated in hospitals in China, an increase of 11.5% over the same period last year. It is expected that the recovery of diagnosis and treatment will lead to a rapid growth in demand for blood products in 2023.
Shanghai Royce pulp volume is more than one thousand tons, leading the profitability in China. The company has expanded its pulp station resources through a number of mergers and acquisitions since 2014. there are 42 pulp stations, with a pulp production capacity of more than 1400 tons in 2022, ranking the first echelon in the industry. The company has obtained the sales agency of Gilford people's serum albumin products, and the company's income from acting for albumin in 2022 is 2.7 billion yuan. Albumin agency business helps the company to enhance its industrial voice, thus further promoting the sales of other self-produced products. The company's existing human serum albumin, intravenous injection of human immunoglobulin and other a total of 11 varieties. Among them, Shanghai Royce headquarters includes three major coagulation factor products. Benefiting from the rich variety of products and the advantage of market share, the company leads the industry in profitability. We estimate that the company's net profit per ton of pulp in 2022 is about 1 million yuan / ton.
Launch the employee stock ownership plan to mobilize the enthusiasm of the company's personnel, conducive to performance growth and product research and development. The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan, which is proposed to include no more than 272 employees, including 7 directors, supervisors and senior managers. The stock source of this employee stock ownership plan is 30% of the company's share buyback. The price of employee stock ownership plan to buy repurchase shares is 3.61 yuan per share. The employee stock ownership plan will grant rights and interests for the first time in the three fiscal years from 2023 to 2025, with cumulative operating income of not less than 74,160,25 billion yuan in 2023, 2023-2024 and 2023-2025, respectively, or clinical applications for innovative / improved biological products in 2024 and 2025 have been approved.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 7.58 billion yuan, 8.76 billion yuan and 10.16 billion yuan respectively, and the return net profit will be 2.17 billion yuan, 2.52 billion yuan and 2.93 billion yuan respectively. The company will be given a 25 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a target price of 9.35 yuan and a target price of 29 times PE in 2023.
Risk hints: the growth of pulp production is not up to expectation, the market expansion is not as expected, the impairment of goodwill, the deterioration of industry competition pattern and other risks.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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