Main points of investment
Event: CCI Energy released its third quarterly report in 2023. In the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 4.33 billion yuan, year-on-year-13.20%, net profit of 142 million yuan, year-on-year-58.67%, non-return net profit of 126 million yuan, year-on-year-63.09%. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 13.269 billion yuan,-4.08% year-on-year, and net profit of 227 million yuan,-20.57%, compared with the same period last year. Combined with the company's operating data, our comments are as follows:
Comments: the rapid decline of coal prices-the pick-up of electricity demand in the province led to an increase in unit power generation, and electricity prices fell year-on-year under a high base. In the first three quarters, the company's holding units completed power generation of 30.625 billion kWh, + 4.70% compared with the same period last year, and the average utilization hours was 3291 hours, + 94 hours compared with the same period last year. Among them, Q3 completed 11.059 billion kWh, + 9.12% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in electricity demand in Hebei Province, with electricity consumption + 13.11% and + 10.06% in July and August compared with the same period last year. Affected by the high electricity price base of inter-provincial spot transactions last year, electricity prices declined year on year, with an average online settlement price of 400.27 yuan / MW hours (excluding tax) in the first three quarters, compared with-30.60 yuan / MW hours last year. In terms of cost, the cost of coal for thermal power units of the company has declined greatly. In the first three quarters, the average unit price of standard coal was 926.06 yuan / ton, which was-3.36% lower than that of the same period last year (about 32 yuan / ton), 51 yuan / ton lower than H1 and 121 yuan / ton lower than Q1. The rapid decline in coal prices led to the continuous repair of the company's main business gross profit.
Prospect: speed up the commissioning of new thermal power units and be optimistic about the continuous repair of performance under the trend of cost-side improvement. The company is building a thermal power unit Shouyang Power Generation (2 × 350 million kilowatts) Unit 1 has passed 168-hour trial operation in July and is expected to be put into operation in Q4; the fourth phase of Xibaipo Power Plant (1 × 66 million kilowatts) and the second phase of Renqiu Thermal Power Plant (2 × 35 million kilowatts) were approved in April. In addition, the company has accelerated the transformation of new energy. By the end of H1, the installed capacity of new energy has been 310000 kilowatts, and the scale of projects under construction and under construction has increased to 1.77 million kilowatts. In the future, with the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration and the construction of Xiongan New area, the growth of the company's assets is expected.
Investment suggestion: the company's location advantage & the increase in the proportion of long-term Association is expected to further reduce the price of thermal coal and new thermal power and green power units to ensure the medium-term growth of the company. We adjusted the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 to 3.95,6.83 and 797 million yuan, which was + 283.6%, + 72.8% and + 16.7% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the PE valuation corresponding to the closing price on October 20 was 24.8x, 14.3x and 12.3x, respectively.
Risk hints: coal prices rising sharply, power trading risk, spot advance less than expected, macroeconomic fluctuations