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万孚生物(300482):新冠基数已消化 国际市场渐入收获期

Wanfu Biotech (300482): The COVID-19 base has been digested and the international market is gradually entering the harvest period

信達證券 ·  Oct 19, 2023 00:00

1. Domestic leader in the field of POCT, relying on 9 major technology platforms, to create a complete product line to meet the needs of real-time inspection of all kinds of scenarios. Wanfu Bio was founded in 1992 and has been ploughing the POCT field for more than 30 years. Relying on the existing nine major technology platforms, such as immune colloidal gold technology platform, immunofluorescence technology platform and electrochemical technology platform, Wanfu Bio has created a complete product line that meets the needs of real-time testing of all kinds of scenes. The company's main business income increased from 547 million yuan in 2016 to 5.681 billion yuan in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 47.69 percent. The net profit returned to its parent increased from 145 million yuan in 2016 to 1.197 billion yuan in 2022, with an annual compound growth rate of 42.16 percent.

two。 The company has rich product lines, quantitative and qualitative products go hand in hand, and the business of chronic diseases and infectious diseases leads the growth. (1) chronic disease testing business: in recent years, the number of people suffering from chronic diseases has been increasing. With the continuous enrichment of the company's products, the revenue of chronic disease testing business has increased rapidly, accounting for 48.22% of the total business income from 12.28% in 2014, and the gross profit margin has remained above 60%. It has become the company's cash cow business. (2) Infectious disease business: the volume of routine testing items is steadily increased, and the market recognition of influenza, hepatitis B and "four items before operation" is relatively high. during the spread of COVID-19 's epidemic situation, the company responded quickly to the market demand. Nearly 7 COVID-19 testing related products have been launched at home and abroad to help the company's infectious disease detection shine. (3) Drug testing: the product range is complete, hair testing is the first, the market competition pattern is good, and there is much room for growth in the future. at present, breakthroughs have been made in Russia, Indonesia, Latin America, domestic and other markets, which is expected to drive the drug testing business to a new level. (4) pregnancy and eugenics testing: Jin Xiuer, a sub-brand of the company, leads the domestic market, and "To B + To C" works together online and offline, which is expected to achieve restorative growth in the post-epidemic era.

3. Domestic empowerment channels achieve "four expansion", foreign "localization" in-depth marketing, global sales network is gradually improved, brand effect is strengthened, highlighting competitive advantages. Focusing on the expansion of the global market, the company has basically set up a global sales and service network, covering more than 140 countries and regions around the world, building a "Wanfu" brand around the world, and its competitive advantage is gradually highlighted. (1) overseas market: the company began to lay out overseas channels in 2004, and now it has set up a relatively mature and perfect marketing system, and carefully cultivated the overseas market through the "localization" strategy, and selected products according to local needs and local conditions. to carry out key promotion and in-depth expansion, the business of American subsidiaries and international departments is expected to maintain a rapid development trend. (2) domestic market: divide the "seven war zones", strengthen the management of channels, constantly empower dealers, rely on the advantages of rich product lines, provide customers with scene-oriented overall solutions, and improve the overall marketing efficiency of the company. in order to achieve the strategic goal of "expanding channels, expanding products, expanding terminals, expanding shares".

4. Invest in potential areas such as continuous coding, molecular layout and pathological diagnosis to build Wanfu biosphere. (1) R & D: the company pays attention to innovation, continuously increases R & D investment in the development of new products and new technology platforms, continuously introduces outstanding talents at home and abroad, and gradually sets up a professional R & D team of high-quality talents with doctoral and master's degrees as academic leaders. (2) Investment M & A: the company actively carries out investment M & A strategy, builds Wanfu ecosystem, invests in British Binx Health Limited, American iCubate, Belgian Biocartis and other companies, introduces advanced technology and core products, lays out molecular and pathological diagnosis fields, builds "swelling mark-immunohistochemistry-digital pathology-concomitant diagnosis" product chain, builds the second growth curve for the company's business development, and strengthens the moat.

Profit forecast and investment advice: we expect the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 to be 2.943 billion yuan, 3.64 billion yuan and 4.579 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of-48.2%, 23.7% and 25.8%, respectively, and achieve a net profit of 546 million yuan, 722 million yuan and 950 million yuan, up-54.4%, 32.3% and 31.6%, respectively. Corresponding to the current stock price PE is 21, 16, 12 times. Consider the growth of the company's existing products and the market potential of testing project expansion, give the company a "buy" investment rating.

Risk tips: the risk that market development is not as expected; the risk of new product research and development, registration and certification; the risk of policy change; the risk of market competition leading to a substantial decline in product prices.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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