Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guotai Junan recently published a research report on the real estate industry, which believes that housing sales have declined, but investment has rebounded. In order to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, the City Strategy will be maintained, maintaining the "outperform" rating of the real estate industry, optimistic about Longhu Real Estate (00960) and Country Garden Holdings (02007).
The year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales from January to September 2017 was slightly lower than that from January to August 2017. The area of land purchase and investment rebounded. In addition, the salable area continues the downward trend. As a result, we see a healthy real estate market.
Home sales fell, but investment rebounded.In order to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, the urban policy will be maintained. Guotai Junan believes that rising average sales prices and low inventory levels triggered the introduction of policy tightening measures. These related policies are mainly related to the increase of the minimum down payment, the upgrading of purchase restrictions, price restrictions and restrictions on home sales. Policy tightening can dampen both the demand and supply of commercial housing, thus cooling the real estate market.
The report mentionsIn order to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, the urban policy will be maintained.Nine of the companies covered by Guotai Junan announced contract sales in September 2017. From January to September 2017, contract sales were divided and large developers performed better than small and medium-sized developers. In terms of contract sales growth, Longhu Real Estate (00960) ranked first (97.0%), while Country Garden Holdings (02007) recorded the highest contract sales (428.17 billion yuan).
The agency maintains that the real estate industry "outperforms the market". Tighter policy and monetary conditions have cooled the real estate market. However, the absolute value of home sales is still high. And the leader of the real estate industry will achieve sustained growth through the increase of market share in the period of increasing industry concentration.The first choice is Longhu Real Estate (00960 HK), which is expected to have a stable gross profit margin and sustainable growth under a healthy financial situation. The current target price of Longhu property is HK $26.64, a discount of 20% per share of net assets to 2017 times 2017 core price-to-earnings ratio and 1.9 times 2017 market-to-net ratio.(editor: he Yucheng)