Author: Qiuyuan Junji

On October 18, Qudian Inc (NYSE:QD) was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, rising more than 45% on its first day of trading, with a market capitalization of more than $10 billion at one point, making it the most valuable Chinese stock in Internet finance.

Among the many interpretations of Qudian Inc's prospectus, there are a lot of questions:

Qudian Inc, the source of customer flow depends on Alipay, risk control information relies on sesame information, and it relies heavily on Ant Financial Services Group's "blood transfusion". There is clearly an "obstacle to listing". How can he have the courage and courage to go public?

Melon eaters believe that Qudian Inc is a company without an independent soul, and its success or failure depends on its strategic partner, Ant Financial Services Group. What if one day the ant father is unhappy and kicks a fun shop to find someone else? Is the listing of Qudian Inc a fraud of shareholders' money? How can a company like it, which has "serious barriers to listing", be listed?

The reason for this is that many people have a "sour grapes" mentality that such companies can go public and are completely incomprehensible.

We must point out that the mentality of "sour grapes" is completely normal. How can we see this kind of situation that destroys the outlook on life, world outlook and values, and makes a fortune on the market?. Instead of being bitter about it, we are indifferent and have no waves.

However, the problems must be looked at separately. We cannot analyze the stability, longevity and firmness of strategic alliances between companies on the basis of personal psychological preferences.

On the contrary, we need to analyze the strategic motivation between the two, whether they are living in the same bed or estranging each other. Is it the cold lips that naturally exist in the alliance of unified strategic interests, or is it a life-and-death struggle in the form of zero-sum games? How do they play their strategic roles respectively?

Only by figuring out these most basic questions, the above confusion will break itself.

Current situation of Qudian Inc's Business and key risk Control Information

According to the data, at present, Qudian Inc's passenger traffic basically comes from the secondary window under the Alipay interface:

In terms of risk control, the basic original information of risk control comes from sesame credit information, and then combined with some other relevant information to optimize, machine judgment, whether to loan or not. Subsequently, Qudian Inc needs to submit feedback to Sesame for credit information on the performance of the users.

At the same time, Ant Financial Services Group himself is also engaged in consumer finance, cash loans and other products that directly compete with each other.

According to the introduction of the prospectus and other information, we come to the following conclusion:

1, the company's specific business traffic, all rely on Alipay secondary interface diversion. (the customer comes from Alipay diversion, and the income also comes from this)

2. Most of the company's key risk control information comes from sesame credit information. (it means that without the platform, Qudian Inc is nothing and the company does not have a core competitive advantage.)

3. The business of this company is in direct competition with the original Ant Financial Services Group. (this strategic alliance, fragile, seems likely to disintegrate at any time.)

In international strategic relations, if a country's economic lifeline and national defense security depend entirely on other countries, how will we evaluate it?

In ancient times, we would say that the Korean Peninsula was a dependency of the Qing Dynasty; today, we would say: this is the "lackey" of American imperialism.

In real life, we often call the weak side of this relationship "the bird in the cage" and "the fish in the pot".

If an enterprise preparing for IPO presents itself in the mainland capital market in such a state of operation, the CSRC will most likely fail for shareholders on the grounds that "there are serious obstacles to listing." This kind of enterprise is absolutely not on the table, can not enter the table, and is not qualified to be listed.

With pleasant loans, trustworthiness and wealth, these two American listed companies, at least, do not have the problem of "independence." they both work hard and do hard work, while in Qudian Inc, they really look particularly "dazzling." it's a thorn in the eye and a thorn in the flesh, which makes people feel aggrieved.

Ant Financial Services Group's current platform Strategy

As we all know, Jack Ma has a dream: there is no difficult business in the world.

Therefore, we see Taobao, Tmall, Cainiao network, cloud computing and other businesses, these businesses all have one thing in common: directly to the B side, that is, to provide services to enterprises, not directly aimed at individual user services.

To put it simply, Jack Ma runs a casino and only cares about the basic design, not whether a specific deal is profitable or not.

The common examples in similar life are mahjong parlors and chess and card rooms, which do business with Dutch officials. most importantly, in the Ali version, this business is monopolized, and there is no other branch in the world.

Ant Financial obedience was founded and adhered to this strategy until the emergence of Yu'e Bao in 13 years. But in the last five years, we have directly tried the "market maker" business and participated in the financial business.

However, due to the social surname Zhao, competing for interests with state-owned assets, participating in the finance itself and taking a share of the business, it is doomed to be very difficult, the process is tortuous, and the future is even more rugged.

Therefore, after hitting a brick wall several times, in March and April this year, Ant Financial Services Group returned to the original track, insisting on being a platform and financial technology.

Casino official business, both flood and drought harvest, less affected by the economic cycle, revenue depends on the prosperity of the casino, the need to make the farm "happy" point.

On the other hand, the financial business itself, which depends on heaven for a living (domestic policy for a living), has a strong periodicity, walks on the brink of bankruptcy, is still laughing today, and may die on the street tomorrow.

In terms of the quality of the business itself, it is much better to be a casino official than to be a gambler's counterparty.

As the saying goes, this is the iron rice bowl and the golden rice bowl; the secret of business lies in stable and predictable cash flow income.

Of course, there is a very important point, for Ant Financial Services Group, if the emphasis on financial attributes, corporate valuation will be very low. Technology stocks usually have a price-to-earnings ratio of 50 to 100, while financial stocks usually have a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 20.

It is you. Which strategic direction will you choose for the enterprise? There is no doubt that Ant Financial Services Group has told us the answer, choosing to be a platform and the direction of financial science and technology.

Ant Financial Services Group's Dream of "reaching all directions"

From the above analysis, we can draw a conclusion: as long as Ant Financial Services Group's strategic direction remains unchanged, as long as Jack Ma is not confused and his head is not confused, the cornerstone of cooperation between Qudian Inc and Ant Financial Services Group exists, and the foundation of this strategic alliance is as solid as a rock.

Despite the wind and rain, I walk on my own. No matter how Ant Financial Services Group operates, its basic policy of opening up the platform will not change.

And the state of this kind of development platform, we carefully consider, have you seen it there?

1. Is the relationship between the rookie network and the "four links and one reach" similar?

2. BABA's attitude towards Meituan and Dianping (before the merger), followed by word-of-mouth and ele.me, is this kind of O2O relationship similar?

3. Are Taobao, Tmall and many of the above sellers similar?

We have reason to believe that based on the consistent business strategy and enterprise style, Ant Financial Services Group will also adopt a similar approach: let Qudian Inc and Zhongan Insurance become Ant Financial Services Group's version of the "four links" role.

Relying on people's breath and being restrained by people, he became a working cub of Ant Financial Services Group. It will make you comfortable to live, but it will imprison your dream of a great company. Like a bird in a cage, it can't starve to death, but it loses something precious.

Ant Financial Services Group, in fact, is also very good at creating the beautiful situation of the flowers blooming in the picture above.

Well, let's look at Qudian Inc's financial data. Especially before listing, carry on the benefit transmission, "beautify" all kinds of expenses. (see the following picture, click to see the larger image)

Among them, sales and market fees have dropped sharply, and the prospectus explains that this is due to the fact that at the end of February this year, Alipay was diverted to Qudian Inc for free, and there is an obvious relationship of benefit transfer (12.7% of the shares are relatively minority shareholders, but have absolute influence).

Has this gift of life been secretly priced, like a gift from the queen? We can't judge at the moment.

But from Ant Financial Services Group's point of view, they seem to be happy to do so. Why? I think the main reasons are as follows:

1. Set an example

Complete Ant Financial Services Group's opening-up strategy and become bigger successfully; in this process, Ant Financial Services Group's flow and brand value are highlighted and attract more followers, which is not limited to credit enterprises with small cash loans. it may also be other mutual fund entrepreneurial direction, want to go up the company.

It is equivalent to telling these entrepreneurs to come and surrender and take a look at Qudian Inc's wealth fairy tale.

2. Tamp Ant Financial Services Group's own business

Sesame credit information has always needed more data. In Qudian Inc's prospectus, it clearly told potential investors that Qudian Inc gave back the relevant information to Ant Financial Services Group, which itself is the most critical link in the collection of credit information.

3. Thoroughly implement the platform strategy

This is Ant Financial Services Group, can get a high valuation of the most important factor, a bunch of financial attributes of Ant Financial Services Group, in addition to being unpopular with Zhao, the capital market, will also be deserted treatment.

4. the grasp of the initiative will be more reliable.

Obviously, if this leads to the loss of the initiative, Ant Financial Services Group is doomed not to support Qudian Inc; the reason for such support is that the final hard work, dirty work and hard work are all done by Qudian Inc.

Just like reaching in all directions, Qudian Inc is the bird in the cage, and Ant Financial Services Group firmly controls all the important and high-value parts related to fate, such as "flow, brand, and basic information on risk control".

Based on this, we have every reason to think that Ant Financial Services Group has got the bird in the cage right.

Some people may say that Qudian Inc's income in half a year is 1.83 billion yuan, the net profit is 970 million yuan, and the profit margin is as high as 53.1%, which is higher than that of Maotai.

Making money like this doesn't seem to be a big risk, so why don't the ants do it themselves?

The reason is that as long as Ant Financial Services Group is willing, it can increase the price of flow fee and risk control information fee at any time. Qudian Inc has no bargaining power but can only accept it.

At this stage, in order to successfully appear on the market, set an example and reduce costs, this is a trick to put a long line and catch big fish. The example of connecting in all directions is right there.

In addition, even if you want to, it depends on the face of state-owned assets. Ant Financial Services Group, doing a lot of financial business, the resistance is imaginable. One line and three meetings are not decorations.

What's more, Ant Financial Services Group, there are flowers, borrowing, this product is exploring. In a sense, the existence of Qudian Inc is equivalent to a buffer zone to deal with the policy crisis.

Of course, this kind of financial business, there is also the problem of risk lag, this period seems to earn a lot, many are empty, a storm, all profits will be lost. Leveraged business is destined to be high-risk and far less growing than the technology industry.

The fate of caged birds

Here, the last question is, why did Qudian Inc accept such an arrangement and what is its final fate?

A company, which has just been established for three years and overtakes its old rival LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. by overtaking by counterattacking corners, needs a little compromise.

In October of 13th, Fenqile of Xiao Wenjie launched, and in March of 14th, Luo Min's interest stages were officially launched. To some extent, Luo Min is a follower. If you want to overtake, you must take extraordinary measures.

Behind Qudian Inc, there are also many strong competitors and followers of cash loans, such as JD Finance, webank, bus cash loans, Pintec Technology Holdings consumer loans and so on.

Therefore, for a long time, Qudian Inc's situation was not very optimistic, racing against death and time. Regulatory policy is also the sword of Damocles hanging over Qudian Inc's head.

In addition, industry scandals also occur frequently, such as "campus usury", "naked loan girl" and other vicious negative events.

As a young enterprise in its infancy, it may be killed by all kinds of accidents at any time. Until Ant Financial Services Group bought shares, hugged his thighs, the situation began to improve, the situation slowly reversed, but also formed a certain degree of wind resistance. Ant Financial Services Group is a dignitary to Qudian Inc.

It is a rare and dazzling achievement for a company that has been established for three years to be able to achieve what it is today. Most of this success comes from Ant Financial Services Group's "carrying". Even if Qudian Inc does not hug Ant Financial Services Group's thighs, naturally other people who want to be superior will scramble to be the "bird in the cage."

As for the fate of the bird in the cage, objectively speaking, this can not be directly predicted, because it depends on the development and competition of the enterprises behind.