Earlier this week, the dollar rose and gold fell because of market speculation that the new chairman would be a hawkish chairman after Yellen stepped down on January 31 next year.
Zhitong Financial APP has reported that currency markets have fluctuated slightly and the dollar has risen since the beginning of the week, as Trump recently met with a number of potential candidates to determine the nominee for the new Fed chairman, and made an impromptu comment after meeting with Stanford economist John Taylor that John Taylor had made a good impression on him. It is foolish to invest based on Trump's comments, and we still have no idea who the next Fed chairman will be, although we will soon know.It is reported that Trump will announce the nomination for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve before his visit to China on November 3.
The John Taylor is known for its policy rules, which will hint at the accelerated trajectory of future interest rate hikes.Yellen also held talks with Trump a few days ago, so she has not been excluded from the list of the next chairman, while Federal Reserve Governor Powell Powell is the most popular, according to a Reuters poll, and he belongs to the neutral camp between hawks and doves.
Despite Trump's embarrassing remarks at Monday's news conference, as markets pinned hopes on Trump's final nomination for the new Fed chairman, and the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December has risen to 80%. Us short-term interest rates rose to a multi-year high and the dollar rose to a short-term high.
The weakness of the euro also helped boost the dollar. In Austria's general election last weekend, Kurtz, the young leader of the "centre-right" people's Party, was elected prime minister, and the crisis in Catalonia continued to simmer, shaking the market's belief that the euro would rise in the short term.
When we look at the overall market in terms of non-commercial IMM futures positions, we find that the total short position in the dollar is now the highest since January 2013. Nearly 70 per cent of this short position is close to the record number of long positions in the euro.
The biggest short-term risk for gold comes from potential dollar short covering.
Some of the key factors contributing to the fall in gold prices remain the recent rise in the dollar and the rebound in real bond yields. Opposition to Mr Trump has risen, although the impact of his promise of tax cuts has so far been limited, while other geopolitical hotspots such as Iraq, Iran and North Korea have limited market attention at a time when US stocks continue to hit record highs.
Funds have reduced their long positions in gold by 1/3 in the past four weeks, while demand for exchange-traded products remains resilient, with total positions close to an one-year high.
Last week, gold prices fell back after rising above $1300 an ounce.At present, the next support level is US $1278 / oz, if it falls below, the key support level of US $1260 / oz will be tested.
But Saxo BankKeep the gold price target at $1325 / oz at the end of the year. According to Zhitong Financial APP, recently, at the annual meeting of the London Gold and Silver Market Association (LBMA) in Barcelona, delegates predicted that gold prices would continue to rise next year.
In a survey conducted at the end of the meeting, delegates believed thatBy October next year, gold will rise 6% to $1369 an ounce.A year ago, participants had expected gold to rise to $1347 an ounce in October. But according to the deputies,The biggest winner will be silver, which they expect to rise more than 25 per cent to $21.60 by October.