It is another year of "Singles Day" and another year of "chopping hands". Since Jack Ma created the shopping carnival of Singles' Day, November 11 every year has no longer been Singles' Day, but has become a national "hand chopping" festival. There is only one activity for this festival: buy.
In the past few years, the Singles' Day has indeed made achievements that have attracted worldwide attention, with the daily trading volume rising from 57.1 billion yuan in 14 years to 91.217 billion yuan in 15 years, and then exceeding 120.7 billion yuan in 2016, setting a new global record again and again. Even less than a minute after the start of last year's Singles Day event, or exactly 00:00:52, Tmall's trading volume exceeded 1 billion.
While the increasingly popular "Singles Day" brings hundreds of billions of yuan in sales to Taobao merchants, another industry also gets a piece of the pie in this feast, that is, the logistics express delivery industry.
Zhitong Financial APP learned that on the "Singles Day" day in 2016, BABA's associated logistics data company Cainiao handled 65700 packages, and Shentong shipped 30.5 million parcels to the top of the list. Yuantong ranked second with 25.32 million, while ZTO Express and Yunda ranked third and fourth with 24.2 million and 20.58 million respectively.
Recently, Nielsen and BABA Research Institute also jointly released China's first "Express Last 100m Service trend report", which is expected to exceed 1 billion pieces of express delivery during the Singles' Day holiday this year, setting another world record.
Express collective price increase
However, on the eve of the arrival of Singles Day this year, there was news of a collective increase in express prices in the market.
ZTO Express's official WeChat account "Voice of ZTO Express" announced that it will adjust express delivery prices from now on due to increased transport costs, higher labor costs, rising raw material prices and other factors.
On the 11th, Yunda Express also released a "letter to inform customers" on its website to announce the price adjustment:
At the same time, Yuantong also reported a price increase, although the company subsequently denied the price increase, but it is reported that the company announced an increase in express charges internally, with an increase of 0.3 per ticket for less than one kilogram and 0.3 yuan for the part exceeding one kilogram.
Choosing to raise prices on the eve of Singles Day is undoubtedly a brave strategic choice, but there is also a certain inevitability behind it. In other words, the demand for price adjustment has already existed, and the implementation at this time node is only to hedge against the loss of customers to a certain extent.
On the one hand, due to environmental production restrictions and tightening policies on the import of papermaking raw materials, paper prices have continued to rise since the beginning of this year, while the express industry needs to use a large number of carton packaging, resulting in an increase in the cost of raw materials, and even began to have a tight supply of goods. carton factory delayed delivery and other problems.
Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that in the past year, the price of corrugated medium has risen by about 70%. As a result, the price of a carton has increased by 0.2 to 0.5 yuan, and some of it has risen by more than 1 yuan, which will undoubtedly increase the operating costs of express delivery companies.
On the other hand, as a labor-intensive industry, the increase in labor costs is also the main reason for the increase in express delivery prices. with the rise of the takeout industry and a relatively high level of income, the labor loss in the express delivery industry is obvious, and with the arrival of Singles' Day, the average hourly wage of temporary workers has gone up. According to the usual remuneration, it is basically unable to meet the manpower needs during the Singles Day holiday.
In addition, the transport convection imbalance between the central and western regions and the east results in a high empty car rate and low transport logistics efficiency, which also promotes the cost of the express delivery industry. Therefore, the joint price increase of the "access system" is actually a manifestation of the return of the industry rationality after years of irrational homogenization and vicious competition in the express industry.
Express stocks have an outstanding performance.
Express price increase is a foregone conclusion, then how about the market performance of related concept stocks? When it comes to logistics express stocks in the capital market, of course, we have to mention Wang Wei and his SF Holdings (002352). On February 24th, Dingtai Xincai officially changed its name to SF Holdings, and its share price also ushered in a strong performance of five consecutive limit boards.
With the continuous rise in share prices, Wang Wei's wealth has also become a topic of concern in the market. In intraday trading on March 1, SF Holdings rose again, directly becoming the fourth largest logistics company in the world by market capitalization, and Wang Wei directly surpassed Li Ka-shing to become the first richest person in Hong Kong.
Since SF has already jumped out of the red sea of low prices and is already in the high price range, the collective price increase of the express delivery company has little to do with it, but even so, SF shares have risen more than 10% since the beginning of September.
Source: Futu Securities
In fact, the "access system" (Shentong, Yuantong, ZTO Express, Best Huitong, Yunda), which has been fighting for hegemony for several years, is the real protagonist of this express price rise tide, and they are all listed in A shares and even American stocks one after another. with Best Huitong officially landing on the US stock IPO on September 20, the six giant listed companies in the express industry have gathered ever since, for them, IPO may be late, but it will never be absent.
In the listed "Tongda system", Yunda shares, Shentong Express and Yuantong Express, which are listed in A shares, have all performed well recently. Since the beginning of September, Yunda's cumulative increase has exceeded 18%, Shentong's cumulative increase is 5.6%, and Yuantong's cumulative increase is close to 24%.
In addition, ZTO Express's share price, which is already listed on US stocks, has risen by more than 10% since the beginning of September:
Can Hong Kong stocks get a piece of the pie?
The market performance of mainland express stocks is so bright, so are there any related concept stocks in the Hong Kong stock market? The answer is, of course, yes.
First of all, I would like to talk about Xindar International Logistics (06123). Although the name is somewhat unfamiliar, the shareholder behind it is Yuantong Express, which has risen the most recently among the above-mentioned mainland express stocks.
As early as May this year, Yuantong Express announced that it would buy up to 61.87% of the shares at a total cost of HK $1.04 billion, equivalent to HK $4.0698 per share. More importantly, this is not just a simple shell purchase or financing, but an expansion of Yuantong's cross-border e-commerce business.
Under the call of the "Belt and Road Initiative" strategy, overseas markets have become a new battlefield for domestic express delivery companies. BABA Research Institute predicts that China's cross-border e-commerce market is expected to grow by more than 20% year-on-year from 2016 to 2020. Domestic cross-border e-commerce users have grown by more than 50% since 2015.
The upcoming Singles Day holiday will naturally involve a large number of cross-border orders. at present, the biggest problem for domestic express companies in overseas expansion is the distribution of points and customs clearance, and the precipitation of Xinda in Hong Kong over the past 20 years has provided Yuantong with a large number of international sea, air and air transport and customs trunk resources.
At present, the company has a market capitalization of only HK $1.7 billion, and the company has said that its goal is to put the company on the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect list, which means its market value should be at least three times that of the current, but as Yuantong's only overseas platform, it is not too much to have a market capitalization of HK $4 billion to HK $5 billion.
In terms of stock price, Xindar International Logistics has also been in an upward channel recently. more importantly, in the week of Singles Day last year (November 7 to November 11), the stock rose by 40.09%, plus the following week. its cumulative increase is close to 50%:
Source: Futu Securities
This year's Singles Day, can Sunda replicate last year's "Magic week"? Let's wait and see.
In addition to Xinda with Yuantong thighs, Sinotrans (00598) has recently entered into an acquisition agreement with China Merchants to acquire the entire issued share capital of China Merchants Logistics Group for RMB 5.45 billion. Zhitong Financial APP learned that China Merchants Logistics Group is a third-party logistics service provider, providing services including contract logistics, automobile transportation, cold chain logistics, international supply chain logistics and equipment leasing.
After this asset injection, Sinotrans's contract logistics business will further expand, its products will be more diversified, and warehousing costs will be reduced. at the same time, it will help Sinotrans to enhance service quality and reduce cold chain distribution costs. In terms of warehousing, the number and location of warehouses owned by China Merchants Logistics will benefit Sinotrans indirectly for a long time. In addition, through the absorption of investment logistics, the horizontal competition between the company and investment logistics will be eliminated.
In terms of stock prices, Sinotrans's recent performance has not been too bright, but its share price rose 6.73% in the two weeks before and after Singles Day last year:
Source: Futu Securities
In addition, the performance of Kerry Logistics (00636), one of the leading logistics industry in Hong Kong, is also to be expected.
The company's annual turnover rose 31 per cent to HK $13.705 billion in the first half of the year, while profit attributable to shareholders also rose 11 per cent to HK $788 million, according to a previous semi-annual report. Ma Rongkai, president of the company, said at the performance meeting that he would sell non-core assets one after another in the next five years and release funds to invest in core business in order to seek better development.
Compared with the first two logistics stocks, Kerry Logistics rose relatively less during the Singles Day holiday last year, but it also rose 2.2% in the previous two weeks:
Source: Futu Securities
Historical experience has told us that Singles' Day every year is a major positive for logistics express stocks, and I believe this year will be no exception. Of course, in addition to logistics stocks, there are some sectors also take advantage of the "Singles Day" this east wind, we will also be in the following series of articles for you to make a further analysis.