It hasn't been the best quarter for Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 24% in that time. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 20%, less than the market return of 73%.
Although Mueller Water Products has shed US$111m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Mueller Water Products
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Mueller Water Products actually saw its EPS drop 5.4% per year.
The strong decline in earnings per share suggests the market isn't using EPS to judge the company. The falling EPS doesn't correlate with the climbing share price, so it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
The modest 2.0% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. In contrast revenue growth of 8.1% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Mueller Water Products is growing, a real positive. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. If you are thinking of buying or selling Mueller Water Products stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Mueller Water Products the TSR over the last 5 years was 31%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Mueller Water Products shareholders are up 15% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 6% over half a decade This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Mueller Water Products you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.