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云南能投(002053):业绩符合预期 资本开支加速

Yunnan Energy Investment (002053): Performance is in line with expectations, capital expenditure is accelerating

國泰君安 ·  Oct 19, 2023 07:32

This report is read as follows:

The company's 3Q23 performance is in line with expectations, capital expenditure is accelerating, and installation is expected to continue to grow at a high rate.

Main points of investment:

Maintain the "overweight" rating: from 2023 to 2025, maintain EPS 0.60, 0.99, 1.12 yuan, maintain the target price of 16.52 yuan, and maintain the "overweight" rating.

3Q23's performance is in line with expectations. Company 1~3Q23 revenue 1.96 billion yuan, year-on-year + 11.0%; return to the mother net profit of 330 million yuan, year-on-year + 61.6%, in line with the performance forecast range. The company's 3Q23 revenue was 670 million yuan, + 24.0% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 33 million yuan, + 15.7% compared with the same period last year.

The amount of wind power continues to grow, and Shixin Company completes the table. We speculate that 3Q23's performance growth is mainly due to the increase in wind power and Shixin's consolidated table: 1) from January to September 2023, the company's wind power plate sold electricity compared with the same period last year + 50.4%. 2) Shixin, a newly acquired wholly-owned subsidiary company acquired in July 2023, is included in the company's consolidated statement. Shixin achieved a net profit of 13 million yuan from January to September 2023. According to the company, the third quarter is during the light wind season in Yunnan Province (June to October), and the company's performance in the third quarter is often weaker than other quarters affected by wind resources. We expect that the profitability of the company's new new energy projects will remain at a high level, and the company's performance is expected to maintain high growth with the commissioning of new energy projects under construction.

Capital expenditure is accelerating and installation is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. By September 6, 2023, the company had put into production a total of 1.02 million kilowatts of new energy installed, which was more than 96.7% at the end of 2022. We believe that the growth rate of the company's subsequent production and installation of new energy is expected to exceed expectations: 1) 3Q23 will pay 1.49 billion yuan in cash for the purchase and construction of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets, compared with the same period last year. 2) the remaining units of the Yongning project, Admiralty Phase I (the first unit was hoisted in September 2023) and Jian Shuitang Liangzi wind power projects are still in progress in an orderly manner.

Risk tips: electricity demand is not as expected, salt and nitrate business is not as expected, and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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