三季度业绩延续增速，盈利水平持续提升。公司Q3 生产经营保持高增态势，连续实现单季营收同、环比正增长。受益于下游整车销量回暖，公司Q3 营收12.6 亿元，同比增长21%，环比增长22%；归母净利润0.74 亿元，同比增长13%，环比增长35%。随着公司新能源电驱动业务占比的持续提升以及规模效应带来的利润释放，公司销售净利率持续修复，1Q23、2Q23、3Q23 的单季度销售净利率分别为3.87%、5.25%、5.82%，我们看好公司盈利能力逐步修复对业绩的提振。3Q23 performance is in line with our expectations
The company announced 3Q23 results: revenue was 1.261 billion yuan, up 20.7% from the same period last year, up 22.0% from the previous month; net profit from home was 74 million yuan, corresponding to 0.18 yuan per share, up 12.9% from the same period last year, up 34.0% from the previous month, in line with our expectations.
Trend of development
The performance continued to grow in the third quarter, and the profit level continued to improve. The company's Q3 production and operation maintained a high growth trend, continuously achieving a single-quarter revenue growth of the same, month-on-month positive growth. Benefiting from the pick-up in vehicle sales downstream, the company's Q3 revenue was 1.26 billion yuan, up 21% from the same period last year and 22% from the previous year, while the net profit from its parent was 74 million yuan, up 13% from the same period last year and 35% from the previous year. With the continuous increase in the proportion of the company's new energy power drive business and the release of profits brought about by economies of scale, the company's net sales interest rate continues to repair. The single-quarter net sales profit rates of 1Q23, 2Q23 and 3Q23 are 3.87%, 5.25% and 5.82%, respectively. We are optimistic that the company's profitability will gradually repair the boost to performance.
The electric drive business of new energy vehicles continues to grow at a high rate, focusing on core customers to show the advantages of the pattern. The technical iteration of the electric drive system of the new energy vehicle shows an accelerated trend, and the trend of system integration is obvious. with the improvement of the permeability of the dual-motor model and the high power of the motor, the value of the electric drive system continues to increase.
The company expands from the motor core to the assembly business. At present, the value of the bike is the highest or up to 5000 yuan. At the customer level, the company is the core supplier of Huawei automotive electric drive system, with products covering Huawei cooperative car companies such as Cyrus, Changan, Chery, Jianghuai, etc.; at the same time, the company achieves mass production support for head mainframe factories such as Geely, BYD, United Microelectronics Corp, Dongfeng, Schaeffler and Tier 1 suppliers. We believe that the rapid iteration of electric drive system technology and the continuous expansion of the company's customers will lay a solid foundation for the rapid development of the company's new energy business; with the number of models and new cars released by Huawei partners such as Cyrus and Chery, the company's new energy vehicle electric drive business is expected to achieve sustained high growth.
The development of traditional business is stable, while capacity expansion and new business expansion continue to accelerate. With the pick-up in end-market sales, the company's traditional cars and electric two-wheelers and other businesses have developed steadily. The company actively arranges the production base of Liangjiang New area, which has a new cluster of Huawei automobile industry, and is adjacent to ideal, Changan and other automobile enterprises, and is expected to match the core customers of new energy vehicles in Sichuan and Chongqing. In addition, the company continues to increase the battery precision structure business, and continues to expand the core components of new energy vehicles. We believe that the steady development of traditional business and the continuous development of new business are expected to contribute to the rapid development of the company's performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
We keep our profit forecasts for 2023 and 2024 unchanged, with a net profit of 253,328 million yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.2 times 2024 / 21.0 times earnings for 2023 Universe. To maintain the rating of the outperforming industry, considering the upward move of the valuation center of the sub-industry, we raise the target price by 10% to 20.16 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.2 times 2023 / 2024, which is 18.6% higher than the current stock price.
Risk
The sales volume of the whole vehicle market is lower than expected, the expansion of new energy business is not as expected, and cost control is not as expected.
