Excellent operating capacity, new energy business is expected to help performance take off
The company's 1-3Q23 realized operating income / return net profit of 462111571 million yuan, compared with the same period of last year + 390,000,3Q23, realized business income / return net profit of 1.728pm 545 million yuan, year-on-year + 62.2bp net profit 56.5%. The return net profit is close to the upper limit of our performance forecast (Huatai expectation: 496-549 million yuan).
We maintain the 23-25 year return net profit forecast of 20.50 Wind 2.934 billion yuan, corresponding to 1.20Compact 1.75 PE 2.04 yuan. Considering the company's excellent operating capacity and new energy business opening room for growth, we will give 21.5 x PE in 2023 (reference comparable company 2023 Wind consensus expected PE average 16.5x), target price 25.80 yuan per share (previous value: 27.72 yuan, based on 2023 23.1x PE) Maintain a "buy" rating.
Environmental protection operation / equipment revenue in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year + 20 Universe 66%
The company's environmental protection operating income in the first three quarters was 2.262 billion yuan, + 20% compared with the same period last year, and completed garbage storage volume of 8.7 million tons (including household, kitchen, sludge and other garbage, including 8.3 million tons of domestic waste), an increase of 27% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters, equipment revenue was + 66% to 2.339 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and equipment orders were outstanding. Weiming equipment signed equipment contracts for waste power generation in Fuyuan County, Molovali cogeneration in Indonesia, and supporting equipment for Grimmei mineral processing, with a contract amount of 0.86 trillion RMB 2.38 billion respectively.
The layout of new energy materials is integrated, and the high matte project is carried out as scheduled.
In August 2023, Weiming Shengqing signed a framework agreement with the Wenzhou Bay New area Management Committee to invest in a project with an annual output of 50,000 tons of high purity electrolytic nickel in Wenzhou Bay New area, with a total investment of about 700 million yuan. The planned production capacity of the company's high nickel matte project is 130,000 tons / year, corresponding to the equity production capacity of 77500 tons / year, of which the Jiaman project capacity is 40,000 tons / year of high nickel matte metal, which has entered the equipment installation stage in the third quarter. The Wenzhou lithium battery new material project is progressing smoothly. We estimate that the high matte business is expected to contribute 530 million yuan to the company's return net profit in 2024, driving performance growth.
Target price 25.80 yuan per share, maintain the "buy" rating
We maintain the 23-25 year return net profit forecast of 20.50 Wind 2.934 billion yuan, corresponding to 1.20Compact 1.75 PE 2.04 yuan. Considering the company's excellent operating capacity and new energy business opening room for growth, we will give 21.5 x PE in 2023 (reference comparable company 2023 Wind consensus expected PE average 16.5x), target price 25.80 yuan per share (previous value: 27.72 yuan, based on 2023 23.1x PE) Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the operation risk of waste incineration project, the fluctuation of nickel price is higher than expected, and the construction progress of new material project is lower than expected.