Nanhua Futures (603093): Overseas business continues to gain strength, α+beta resonance drives growth

財通證券 · Oct 17, 2023 00:00

事件：南华期货发布2023 年三季报，分别实现营业收入和归母净利润48.48、2.98 亿元，同比分别-6.9%、+126.2%；其中，单三季度分别实现营业收入和归母净利润17.03、1.30 亿元，同比分别-5.3%、+129.6%。

利息净收入大幅增长是公司业绩高增主要来源。2023 年前三季度公司手续费净收入、利息净收入、其他业务收入（净额法）、投资类收益分别为4.41、4.15、0.62、0.12 亿元，同比分别+12.4%、+94.9%、+196.6%、-73.1%，占净额法营业收入的比重分别为47.4%、44.6%、6.7%、1.3%，同比分别-11.07、+12.87、+3.55、-5.35pct，利息净收入是公司业绩高增的核心驱动力。

境外客户权益增长+美联储利率高企推动公司利息净收入高增。1）从收入来源看，境外部分是公司利息净收入的核心构成。以母公司报表利息净收入衡量境内部分，以合并报表口径利息净收入减掉母公司口径利息净收入衡量境外部分，2023 前三季度境内、境外利息净收入分别为1.08、3.07 亿元，同比分别-35.7%、+578.6%，占公司利息净收入的比重分别为26.0%、74.0%。2）从收入驱动力来看，境外客户权益增长+美联储加息是境外利息净收入大幅增长的核心原因，截至2023H1 末公司境外客户权益同比+33.2%至141 亿港元，三季度预计进一步提升；美联储自2022 下半年大幅加息，2022 年前三季度、2023 年前三季度美国联邦基金利率均值分别为1.04%、4.92%，2023 年前三季度同比提升近四倍，截至10 月13 日已进一步提升至5.33%，对公司境外业务利息净收入形成有力支撑。

投资建议：看好公司凭借全球化清算体系在境外业务中的α与境内期货市场扩容带来的行业β。境外业务方面，中资企业套保资金回流叠加公司独特的清算优势有望推动公司境外客户权益持续增长；境内业务方面，产业客户加速入市+新品种加速推出有望驱动期货行业规模持续扩容，在“活跃资本市场，提振投资者信心”一揽子政策助力下，期货市场活跃度和渗透率有望持续提高。预计公司2023-2025 年分别实现归母净利润4.01、4.86、5.76 亿元，同比分别+63.0%、+21.1%、+18.6%，对应10 月17 日收盘价的PE 分别为19.60、16.19、13.65 倍，维持“增持”评级。

风险提示：期货代理成交规模大幅萎缩；经纪业务费率大幅下滑；风险管理业务出现市场、信用和流动性风险；境外业务经营波动

Event: South China Futures released its three-quarter report in 2023, achieving operating income and net profit of 48.48 yuan and 298 million yuan respectively, respectively, compared with the same period last year, which were-6.9% and + 126.2% respectively. Among them, the operating income and net profit of home ownership were 17.03 yuan and 130 million yuan respectively in the third quarter alone, which were-5.3% and + 129.6% respectively.

The substantial increase in net interest income is the main source of the company's high performance. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's net handling fee income, interest net income, other business income (net method) and investment income were 4.41,4.15,0.62 and 12 million yuan respectively, which were + 12.4%, + 94.9%, + 196.6% and-73.1% respectively over the same period last year, accounting for 47.4%, 44.6%, 6.7% and 1.3% of net operating income, respectively. Year-on-year respectively-11.07, + 12.87, + 3.55,-5.35pct, net interest income is the core driving force of the company's high performance.

The growth of foreign customer rights and interests and high Fed interest rates have contributed to a high increase in the company's net interest income. 1) from the perspective of the source of income, the overseas part is the core component of the company's net interest income. The domestic part is measured by the net interest income of the parent company's statement, and the overseas part is measured by the net interest income of the consolidated statement minus the net interest income of the parent company. The net income of domestic and overseas interest in the first three quarters of 2023 was 1.08yuan and 307 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year, accounting for 26.0% and 74.0% of the company's net interest income, respectively. 2) from the perspective of revenue drivers, the growth of foreign customer rights and interests + Fed interest rate increase is the core reason for the substantial increase in overseas interest income. As of the end of 2023H1, the company's overseas customer rights and interests were + 33.2% to HK $14.1 billion year on year, and are expected to further increase in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply since the second half of 2022. The average US federal funds rate in the first three quarters of 2022 and the first three quarters of 2023 was 1.04 per cent and 4.92 per cent respectively. The year-on-year increase of nearly four times in the first three quarters of 2023 has further risen to 5.33 per cent as of October 13, providing a strong support for the company's net interest income from overseas operations.

Investment advice: be optimistic about the alpha of the company's overseas business with the global clearing system and the industry β brought about by the expansion of the domestic futures market. In terms of overseas business, the unique liquidation advantage of the Chinese-funded enterprises' hedging funds return superimposed company is expected to promote the sustained growth of the company's overseas customers' rights and interests; in the domestic business, the accelerated entry of industrial customers and the accelerated launch of new varieties are expected to drive the sustained expansion of the futures industry, and with the help of the package of policies of "activating the capital market and boosting investor confidence", the activity and penetration of the futures market are expected to continue to increase. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 4.01,4.86 and 576 million yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, which is + 63.0%, + 21.1% and + 18.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. The PE corresponding to the closing price on October 17 is 19.60,16.19,13.65 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk hints: the transaction size of futures agents has shrunk significantly; brokerage fees have fallen sharply; market, credit and liquidity risks have emerged in risk management business; and overseas business has fluctuated

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南华期货(603093)：境外业务持续发力 Α+Β共振驱动成长

Nanhua Futures (603093): Overseas business continues to gain strength, α+beta resonance drives growth

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