The company released three quarterly reports for 23 years, with cumulative revenue of 1.4 billion yuan from 1-3Q, an increase of 38.4%, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, an increase of 55.9%, 1.41 yuan and 55.0% respectively. 23Q3's revenue was 400 million yuan, a decrease of 2.5%, and a net profit of 70 million yuan, a decrease of 6.0%. 23Q3 has steadily increased its orders and maintained its overweight rating.
Support the main points of rating
23Q3's revenue and profit fell slightly. The cumulative revenue of 1-3Q was 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of 38.4%, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, an increase of 55.9%, 1.41 yuan and 55.0% respectively. 23Q3's revenue was 400 million yuan, a decrease of 2.5%, and a net profit of 70 million yuan, a decrease of 6.0%.
The contract debt of 23Q3 has fallen sharply. The amount of 23Q3 contract liabilities was 3.0 million yuan, with a decrease of 69.3% and a decrease of 96.3%. The performance brought about by the centralized supply of a few projects has receded.
The newly signed order continues to improve. According to the incomplete statistics of the enterprise survey data, as of October 12, 2023, 23Q3 has won a total of 870 million yuan (including the first-ranking candidate) orders, and the contract amount of the order has exceeded the 23H1 level.
Industry and research integration of the national team, attached to high-speed rail, the development of subway, the gradual release of production is expected to lead to performance growth. The company is a "national team" with the advantage of integration of industry and research in the field of rail works. In addition to the development of high-speed rail, the company actively develops subway business. According to the company announcement, the company's listing project has reached the scheduled use state at the end of June 2023 and concluded in October 2023. The fund-raising and production can be gradually released, which is expected to lead the company's performance growth.
Valuation
Considering the production capacity of the company, orders are positive, and some profit forecasts are raised. It is estimated that from 2023 to 2025, the company's revenue will be 17.3,20.4 and 2.18 billion yuan respectively; the net profit will be 3.5,4.1 and 470 million yuan respectively; and the EPS will be 1.66,1.93,2.24 yuan.
Main risks faced by rating
High-speed rail construction fell short of expectations, major high-speed rail accidents, fastener replacement demand was lower than expected, production capacity was lower than expected, and raw material prices rose.