Event description
The company issued a forecast for the first three quarters of 2023: the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 825 million yuan to 925 million yuan in the third quarter of 2023, and a cumulative net profit of 1.68 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reversing losses compared with the same period last year.
Event comment
The high base limits the growth rate of thermal power, and the performance of thermal power is released when coal prices fall. In the third quarter, the company completed 27.493 billion kilowatt-hours of coal power generation, down 11.19 percent from the same period last year, mainly due to the high base figure in the third quarter of last year and the squeeze impact of hydropower output since the second half of last year. However, from a month-on-month point of view, coal power generation increased by 16.14% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. Gas and electricity also generated 6.104 billion kilowatt hours in the third quarter, an increase of 27.62 percent over the same period last year. The main reason for the increase in gas electricity was that the Huadu gas turbine 460000 kilowatt unit was put into production in July last year, and it was in stable operation for the whole of this year, but also from a month-on-month point of view, gas electricity increased by 21.23 percent month-on-month. In terms of electricity price, the electricity supply and demand situation in Guangdong Province improved significantly in the third quarter compared with last year. As a result, the average monthly bilateral negotiated electricity price in Guangdong in the third quarter was 509.87 yuan per megawatt hour, down 3.78% from the same period last year, and 5.63% from the previous year. Although the proportion of monthly electricity is limited, it also limits the year-on-year and month-on-month growth of the company's thermal power revenue to a certain extent. In terms of cost, the cost of thermal power fuel will continue to improve: coal prices have fallen rapidly since the third quarter. The average closing price of Q5500 power coal in Qinhuangdao Port is 866.19 yuan / ton, down 31.51% from the same period last year, and 5.27% from the previous month. Therefore, in the year-on-year and month-on-month dimensions, the company's cost-side pressure has been continuously released, and electricity has also achieved month-on-month growth, and the company's thermal power business income has increased significantly compared with the previous year.
The performance of new energy has declined seasonally, and the leading performance of thermal power industry has improved. In the third quarter, the company's wind power generated 803 million kilowatt hours, an increase of 6.78% over the same period last year, mainly due to the pull of new installed capacity. Photovoltaic power generation of 123 million kilowatt hours was completed in the third quarter, all of which were net new electricity. However, since the third quarter is the weak season for one year's stroke power output, from a month-on-month point of view, wind power generation decreased by 36.32% month-on-month. Although photovoltaic power generation increased by 284.38% month-on-month, the company's new energy revenue declined in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, but may maintain a solid performance compared with the same period last year. In addition, in the third quarter, the company completed hydropower generation of 199 million kilowatt-hours, an increase of 26.75 percent over the same period last year, and biomass generation of 179 million kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.29 percent over the same period last year. In addition, as part of the company's investment income comes from Shanxi Yudian Energy, a shareholding company, and its main business is the coal business, Shanxi Yudian Energy contributed 256 million yuan in investment income in the first half of the year, accounting for 40% of the company's total investment income. Due to the decline in coal prices in the third quarter, it is expected that the investment income contributed by the company will also fall month-on-month, thus limiting the company's performance to a certain extent. But on the whole, although the performance of new energy and investment income may be under pressure, the operating performance of the main thermal power industry dominates the performance of the company in the third quarter, and the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 825 million yuan to 925 million yuan in the third quarter. in the first three quarters, the cumulative net profit was 1.68 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan, turning losses into profits over the same period last year.
Investment advice and valuation: according to the latest operating data, we adjust the company's profit forecast. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.46,0.62 and 0.75 yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, and the corresponding PE is 12.26,9.15,7.64 times respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. The production schedule and benefit of the new project are lower than the expected risk.
2. The wind condition and light resources are less than the expected risk.