Main points of investment
The performance in the first three quarters is expected to grow by 50-80% compared with the same period last year, and the performance is expected to exceed expectations. 1) in the first three quarters of 2023, it is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 3.1-370 million, an increase of 50% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the net profit in the first three quarters will be deducted by RMB 2.6-320 million, an increase of 50% and 80%.
2) the third quarter of 2023: the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.1% to 130 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 40% to 70% over the same period last year; the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.0% to 120 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 40% and 70% over the same period last year.
3) in the first three quarters of 2023, in the face of the downward pressure of the new ladder market, the company focused on the main line of high-quality development, opened up all kinds of domestic customer demand, increased foreign market development efforts, and actively participated in the construction of Belt and Road Initiative. Benefiting from the decline in the cost of major raw materials compared with the same period last year, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin rebounded from the same period last year; value-added tax was levied and increased over the previous year; the company actively promoted cost reduction and efficiency, and operating profits increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
China's elevator market is expected to reach 266.5 billion yuan in 2025, and the market potential after three-year CAGR=7%, maintenance is great. 1) the total size of the domestic elevator market will reach 215.3 billion yuan in 2022, 266.5 billion yuan in 2025, and 7% CAGR in 2022-2025. The potential of the elevator market is huge, and it is expected to maintain double-digit growth by 2025. After 2025, the market is expected to account for more than 30% of the total size of the industry, and this proportion will further increase in the medium and long term.
2) at present, world first-tier brands such as Otis, Schindler, Kone, Tyson, Hitachi and Mitsubishi occupy about 70% of the domestic market. According to the estimates of the main business income of each company, Shanghai Mechatronics, Kangli Elevator, Guangri shares, Meilun Elevator and Broad Intelligence have a market share of 10.8%, 2.3%, 3.3%, 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.7% in the domestic market in 2022, respectively. There is much room for improvement. With the increased penetration of the maintenance market of domestic manufacturers, the plus layout of digital elevators and the acceleration of the process of internationalization, the market share of domestic elevator manufacturers is expected to further increase.
China's independent brand elevator leader, market share + market share double increase, profitability is expected to rise 1) core parts, machine integrated independent research and development, to maintain cost competitiveness. The company has built up a manufacturing capability with the highest level of industrial scale, intelligent manufacturing and digital information management in the industry, and relying on the complete self-made advantages of parts and components, it can quickly respond to customer needs; with the help of the core components to the machine integrated manufacturing capacity and service capabilities, to provide customers with a full life cycle solution, and maintain cost competitiveness.
2) increase the layout of high-quality strategic customers, brand recognition continues to improve. The company actively promotes strategic customer coverage, cultivates and develops core agents, excavates high-quality customer groups, and constantly consolidates and deepens the strategic partnership with domestic high-quality real estate companies by virtue of high-quality, differentiated products and high-quality after-sales service.
3) follow the "Belt and Road Initiative" policy and step into the international stage. In terms of the international market, the company's products have been exported to more than 100 countries and regions around the world, focusing on strengthening the development of overseas markets, including the areas along Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle East, and strengthening the cooperative relationship with overseas high-quality agents.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 3.8,4.5 and 500 million yuan, an increase of 40%, 18% and 11% over the same period last year; the corresponding PE is 18-15-13 times. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: real estate policy risk, product safety accident risk, industry measurement deviation risk and so on.